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Presence and Oldbosity


Niemand

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This evening I became unduly fascinated with the difference between the number of posts users have made to the forums here, and the number of their posts which still survive. We have, of course, our prominently displayed Top Posters list, but how does this compare to what one actually finds browsing the forums right now? If we take user's 'presence' to be the fraction of the extant posts written by that user, we find the following (being a neither random nor orderly sample of users, just those who caught my attention or came to mind):

 

Presence

Code:
Randomizer: 6333 posts surviving of 8605 => .04347Lilith: 6283 of 13741 => .04312Alorael: 4924 of 18318 => .03380Slartucker: 4172 of 7359 => .02863Kelandon: 3576 of 8493 => .02454Dikiyoba: 3503 of 6722 => .02404Ephesos: 2700 of 5925 => .01853Stareye: 2688 of 5126 => .01845Celtic Minstrel: 2393 of 2822 => .01642Student of Trinity: 2186 of 4694 => .01500Nioca: 1805 of 3875 => .01239Nikki: 1494 of 4751 => .01025Nalyd: 1362 of 2994 => .00935Drakefyre: 1328 of 9578 => .00911Niemand: 1225 of 1585 => .00841Arancaytar: 1212 of 9523 => .00832Synergy: 1093 of 2323 => .00750Excalibur: 988 of 2931 => .00678Iffy: 952 of 2362 => .00653Micawber: 857 of 1187 => .00588Salmon: 772 of 5508 => .00530VCH: 734 of 2930 => .00504Enraged Slith: 692 of 1852 => .00475TM: 640 of 6960 => .00439Goldenking: 496 of 1591 => .00340Bain Ihrno: 443 of 963 => .00304Lord Safey: 433 of 787 => .00297Sarachim: 401 of 978 => .00275Schrodinger: 391 of 2831 => .00268Jewels: 378 of 1212 => .00259Rowen: 333 of 797 => .00229Smoo: 114 of 291 => .00078Frozen Feet: 105 of 761 => .00072Lt. Sullust: 102 of 2578 => .00070Acteon: 102 of 390 => .00070Drew: 60 of 2285 => .00041Scorpius: 16 of 745 => .00011

 

This statistic is highly influenced by the nature of board purges; for example Celtic Minstrel and myself post primarily in the Blades forums, from which posts have very rarely been removed. Persons such as Arancaytar, Salmon and TM have been hit heavily, I suspect, by the thorough pruning of General, in which many of their posts appeared. Randomizer and Slartucker rise high on the list, I suspect, because they frequently offer useful answers to questions, which tend to be preserved. Alorael and Thuryl/Lilith just post a lot, and virtually everywhere.

 

We might then think to derive a quantity describing not only a poster's influence through surviving posts, but also through the impact of old posts which are now gone. We might call this olbiness, or, as I prefer, oldbosity. A possible construction for such a measure is (total posts)^2/(surviving posts + 1). (The +1 in the denominator is intended to control the behavior of the formula for very old accounts which have few, or no, posts left.) Rearranging the list above then gives:

 

Oldbosity

Code:
Drew: 85594TM: 75572Arancaytar: 74763Drakefyre: 69028Alorael: 68132Lt. Sullust: 64525Salmon: 39247Scorpius: 32649Thuryl: 30047Schrodinger: 20445Kelandon: 20165Nikki: 15098Ephesos: 13002Slartucker: 12977Dikiyoba: 12895Randomizer: 11690VCH: 11680Student of Trinity: 10075Stareye: 9772Excalibur: 8686Nioca: 8314Nalyd: 6577Iffy: 5854Frozen Feet: 5463Goldenking: 5093Enraged Slith: 4949Synergy: 4932Jewels: 3876Celtic Minstrel: 3327Sarachim: 2379Bain Ihrno: 2089Niemand: 2049Rowen: 1902Micawber: 1642Acteon: 1477Lord Safey: 1427Smoo: 736

 

We can see that this does a passable job, although a few factors limit its meaningfulness. For one, this construction cannot distinguish fondly remembered posts from many years ago which were laden with unique personality from large quantities of useless spam posted six months ago and then deleted. More generally, it does not assign any differing weight depending on when posts were made, so that people from completely different periods of forum history can be ranked equivalently.

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First of all, facepalm.

 

Second of all, the preferred term is "oldbisity" (rhymes with "obesity" which is a good reference point).

 

Third of all, your formula boggles me:

Quote:
We might then think to derive a quantity describing not only a poster's influence through surviving posts, but also through the impact of old posts which are now gone. We might call this olbiness, or, as I prefer, oldbosity. A possible construction for such a measure is (total posts)^2/(surviving posts + 1).

If the formula is intended to take into account the impact of BOTH "surviving posts" AND "old posts which are now gone" then why in the world are you dividing by surviving posts? Well, let me show this confusion with some algebra. We can say that

 

Total posts = surviving posts + missing posts

or

Total = surviving + missing

 

So, substituting into your fraction (I'm ignoring the +1 for convenience, since it isn't relevant in broad strokes), we get

 

(Surviving + missing)^2 / Surviving

(Surviving + missing)(Surviving + missing) / Surviving

 

(Surviving^2 + (2 * Surviving * Missing) + Missing^2) / Surviving

 

Surviving + (2 * Missing) + (Missing^2 / Surviving)

 

If it wasn't obvious before, this should make it clear that what your formula actually does, is take into account the impact of missing posts, but then REDUCE the result by the impact of surviving posts... sometimes:

 

Missing 100, Surviving 10, Result: 1210

Missing 100, Surviving 100, Result: 400

Missing 100, Surviving 1000, Result: 1300

 

As you can see, this is not a sensible formula!

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Two statisticians enter, one statistician leaves!

Two statisticians enter, one statistician leaves!

Two statisticians enter, one statistician leaves!

Two statisticians enter, one statistician leaves!

Two statisticians enter, one statistician leaves!

Two statisticians enter, one statistician leaves!

Two statisticians enter, one statistician leaves!

Two statisticians enter, one statistician leaves!

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Originally Posted By: CRISIS on INFINITE SLARTIES
If it wasn't obvious before, this should make it clear that what your formula actually does, is take into account the impact of missing posts, but then REDUCE the result by the impact of surviving posts... sometimes:

Missing 100, Surviving 10, Result: 1210
Missing 100, Surviving 100, Result: 400
Missing 100, Surviving 1000, Result: 1300

As you can see, this is not a sensible formula!

I'm pretty sure this was both obvious and intentional, as the original formula divided by surviving. I think the idea is that the two pillars of oldbietage are posting a lot (total posts) and posting for a long time (approximated for by lack of surviving posts.)

The real problem is that, by this measure, someone who posted a lot a long time ago gets a much higher oldbie score than someone who has posted at a constant rate since equally long ago, even though the latter is no less an oldbie. This is a partial explanation for why I got a disappointing middle-of-the-pack oldbie score despite my enormous oldbietude.

EDIT: On second thought, I failed to do justice to Slarty here. The other, more serious problem with the formula is that it fails to distinguish between a proper oldbie and someone who happens to have an enormous post count, which is exactly what Slarty was saying. For a newbie, Slarty is pretty smart.
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Obvious, yes, intentional, I'm not so sure about, given that it directly contradicts Niemand's explanation of the formula.

 

There are a number of problems here. Another problem is that the dividing line between "oldbie" posts and newer posts is just what's been purged, which is (1) totally different in different forums, as Niemand points out, and (2) not really accurate for any definition of oldbie, and very inaccurate for the original definition, which would exclude everyone still posting except for Stareye, Lilith, and possibly Alorael.

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There is the annual purge of General.

The one time purge of Blades of Avernum that wiped out thousands of oldbie posts when the game was first created with game design debates and all the beta calls for the older scenarios.

The end of the Richard White forum

Everything that got eated by the old UBB including TM's old topic about himself and his PDNs.

 

This skews against the older members that don't post as much anymore. Of course Alorael and Lilith post everywhere and often.

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Hmm. Well, I'd say a large number of my purged posts were useless spam that no one really liked. I really slowed down after my reformation tongue

 

And then I changed even more, and, well, became a happy, optimistic emo boy that barely posts anymore. I'm surprised that that many posts survived.

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Originally Posted By: Niemand

We might then think to derive a quantity describing not only a poster's influence through surviving posts, but also through the impact of old posts which are now gone. We might call this olbiness, or, as I prefer, oldbosity. A possible construction for such a measure is (total posts)^2/(surviving posts + 1). (The +1 in the denominator is intended to control the behavior of the formula for very old accounts which have few, or no, posts left.)


Oh, you made a typo. Let me fix it for you:
log([total posts])/(1+[surviving posts])

A log would more accuratly describe the measure. Look at it this way: 1000 posts would make relativly little difference in, say, Aloraels postcount, because it would be what, 6% of his total? However, if you gave those 1000 posts to someone with only 50 who registered in 2001, it would be a huge difference in their oldbiesity. In addition, some sort of time metric needs to be added, so members who joined in 2001 can beat out members who only joined in, say 2006.

That said, oldbeisity is a trait I desire about as much a obesity.
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Originally Posted By: Micawber
Off the top of my head, given the posting history per month for all users, I think some kind of EWMA could be used to measure oldbitude.

What I'd like are regressions of our posting styles. Does my postcount grow exponentially? Logarithmically? Is it constant? Linear? What is the derivative of my post model, and, more importantly, is it larger than anyone elses?
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Having the PPP around today would, indeed, be a good thing.

 

I think the first step towards a quantification of oldbiness is defining oldbiness. Since nobody can agree on that, all statistics will come to loggerheads. An ideal definition would include statistics that can't be measured, and a workable but more robust definition would include things that could, potentially, be measured if we had more bots or grad students on hand to quantify things.

 

For example, spamming is in some ways the opposite of oldbesity (yet another spelling); someone who shows up and starts spewing posts is, in fact, a noob. Someone who did just that many years ago may be an oldbie now, but having done so isn't a contributing factor; it's the many years that matter. And currently having spammed years ago and vanished after a week produces more oldbosity by Niemand's formula than having produced the same number of posts steadily, which might produce an actual oldbie rather than a forgotten spammer, as Sarachim pointed out.

 

This might measure something, but it's not a quantity that I think is especially meaningful. It correlates only in that members with many posts tend to have made them over a long period of time, which makes them temporal and post oldbies.

 

—Alorael, whose hunch is that total posts and total time are what matters. Somehow.

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Simple proposal:

Total posts * total time * duration adjustment

 

Where total time is in years; total time present, not span from earliest to latest time present; decimals OK

And duration adjustment is a function of the year joined:

2001 = 1

2002 = 0.95

2003 = 0.90

2004 = 0.85

2005 = 0.75

2006 = 0.65

2007 = 0.55

2008 = 0.45

2009 = 0.35

2010 = 0.25

 

Approximate results for top ten posters as best I can figure, plus some from Niemand's list:

 

Alorael: 183,220

Thurilith: 137,440

Drakefyre: 57,468

Stareye: 51,260

TM: 45,240

Kelandon: 43,319

Arancaytar: 42,854

Ephesos: 35,254

Nikki: 34,207

Slarty: 33,129

Randomizer: 27,979

Dikiyoba: 21,856

Salmon: 18,590

VCH: 17,592

Lt. Sullust: 15,468

Nioca: 12,594

Sarachim: 9,800

Drew: 7,769

Niemand: 7,133

Excalibur: 6,448

Celtic Minstrel: 6,208

Synergy: 5,227

 

This can best be viewed as a combination of oldbesity and influence on the way the boards have unfolded. I think this lines up decently with how we think about this stuff.

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*shoooom*

 

...anyway, realistically, post count does not have a lot to do with oldbesity as it was traditionally conceived of. It might also be possible to include some kind of multiplier system: *1.5, say, for being a Very Controversial Figure, some bonus for being a long-term admin, etc. Or perhaps the postcount part should simply have its influence reduced: say cut it in half to ( (posts / 25,000) + 1) times everything else. 25000 chosen since that's where Postaroni, Pizzabella currently sits, I believe.

 

EDIT: Whoops, bad math error!

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Originally Posted By: CRISIS on INFINITE SLARTIES
*shoooom*

...anyway, realistically, post count does not have a lot to do with oldbesity as it was traditionally conceived of. It might also be possible to include some kind of multiplier system: *1.5, say, for being a Very Controversial Figure, some bonus for being a long-term admin, etc. Or perhaps the postcount part should simply have its influence reduced: say cut it in half to ( (posts / 25,000) + 25000) times everything else. 25000 chosen since that's where Postaroni, Pizzabella currently sits, I believe.


It's not too late to have it be a differential equation!
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All right, because I'm procrastinating, I did up a more extensive formula and put a spreadsheet together. This formula begins with a base of 1, essentially. You would have a score of 1 if you joined in 2001, stayed for just one year, made no posts, and were not controversial, a major scenario designer, an admin or mod, or a community-building figure.

 

Duration of stay is by far the biggest factor in the formula, followed by the other factors. Join date makes a bit more difference than the rest, but it does not mean everything (neither does duration of stay). Here are the results, call it what you will -- I make no claims to what this figures, but it figures something:

 

Code:
 27.12 	Alorael 24.37 	Stareye 24.25 	TM 23.02 	Drakey 19.75 	Thurilith 18.25 	Alec 14.87 	Dantdringissonika Slugfort 14.65 	Arancaytar 13.89 	Ephesos 13.77 	Zeviz 13.59 	Archmage Alex 12.52 	ADoS 11.92 	Nikki 11.31 	Kelandon 10.89 	SoT 10.41 	Imban 10.19 	Khoth 9.50 	Saunders 9.36 	Mysterious Man 9.19 	Enraged Slith 8.90 	Scorpius 8.89 	Jewels 8.63 	Sarachim 8.51 	Slarty 8.40 	Djur 8.39 	Delicious Vlish 8.35 	Creator Lael 8.14 	Zephyr Tempest 7.84 	Lt. Sullust 7.46 	ETSDe 7.41 	VCH 7.39 	Andraste 7.05 	BainIhrno 7.00 	Salmon 6.71 	Goldenking 6.16 	Dikiyoba 6.11 	Icshi 6.07 	Schrodinger 6.04 	Randomizer 6.02 	Sir David 5.58 	Niemand 5.53 	Morgan 5.53 	Nicothodes 5.41 	Frozen Feet 5.11 	Nioca 5.09 	Zxquez 5.07 	Tyranicus 4.68 	Radiant 4.60 	Smoo 4.32 	Arctic 4.21 	Wise Man 4.21 	Rosycat 4.17 	Brett Bixler 3.94 	Lazarus 3.89 	Ben 3.63 	Marlenny 3.52 	Synergy 3.52 	Drew 3.46 	Safey 3.37 	Thralni 3.33 	Nemesis 3.22 	SMoE 3.19 	Shotts 3.09 	Stughalf 3.08 	Dintiradan 3.05 	The Mystic 3.03 	Order Mage 2.97 	Celtic Minstrel 2.89 	Infernal 2.85 	Fatman 2.79 	Lenar 2.75 	Iffy 2.72 	Excalibur 2.70 	Lady J 2.67 	Ed Lemur 2.38 	The Ratt 2.33 	Seletine 2.28 	Ackrovan 1.75 	Dolphin 1.65 	Stillness
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Years present * Origin multiplier * Postcount multiplier * Boolean multipliers

 

Years present = 1 to 10 (as described above)

 

Origin multiplier = 1.0 to 0.25 (as described above)

 

Postcount multiplier = (Total postcount of all known accounts / 12500) + 1

(This translates to about an 8% increase per 1000 posts.)

(Note that for a few cases where accounts changed hands or have been lost, I had to make estimates, notably MM, Saunders, Alec, Marlenny, and Tyranicus)

 

Boolean multipliers =

1.5 for members who caused extensive controversy (à la TM)

1.2 for members who caused mild controversy at some point

1.4 for long-term admins

1.1 for users who were mods at any point

1.2 for users who were major scenario designers

1.5 for users who directly created community in an extensive way (à la Dikiyoba)

1.2 for users who directly created community in a less major way (à la Northern Isles, AIMHack, or Alex's cartoons)

 

I don't have Excel open at the moment but I'm fairly sure those are the modifiers I settled on.

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I'm curious about other Booleans, especially since the list is potentially infinite. What about satellite boards? There was the Ezboard explosion circa 2001-2002, but there were also the later, larger satellites. What about PPP participation? Or the Endeavor, for Aran? What about things like the Deathmatches, walkthrough production (FAQSLEF!), or populist uprisings (very nearly an empty set)?

 

—Alorael, who upon reflection thinks that it is necessarily going to be true that different generations of members look at different members with different estimations of oldbesity. When your contributions are forgotten even if you aren't really gone, more recent members are less likely to view you as both an old members and a core member. Being around a long time helps, but it's much better for building up a reputation to have your major contributions and major posting efforts be in recent memory.

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Interesting way of looking at it. Okay, I'll bite. Here are the results of the same formula except with the "origin multiplier" totally removed -- which I guess we could call an estimation of oldbesity without a fixed reference point for what is "old":

 

(The second column is the change from the old version of the list)

 

Code:
 27.12 	 -   	Alorael 24.37 	 -   	Stareye 24.25 	 -   	TM 23.02 	 -   	Drakey 20.79 	 1.04 	Thurilith 18.25 	 -   	Alec 16.34 	 2.45 	Ephesos 16.28 	 1.63 	Arancaytar 15.65 	 0.78 	Dantdringissonika Slugfort 13.77 	 -   	Zeviz 13.59 	 -   	Archmage Alex 13.30 	 2.00 	Kelandon 13.25 	 1.32 	Nikki 12.52 	 -   	ADoS 12.10 	 1.21 	SoT 11.47 	 4.02 	ETSDe 11.34 	 2.84 	Slarty 10.41 	 -   	Imban 10.19 	 -   	Khoth 9.88 	 0.99 	Jewels 9.50 	 -   	Saunders 9.47 	 3.32 	Dikiyoba 9.36 	 -   	Mysterious Man 9.34 	 2.33 	Salmon 9.29 	 3.25 	Randomizer 9.19 	 -   	Enraged Slith 8.90 	 -   	Scorpius 8.83 	 0.44 	Delicious Vlish 8.63 	 -   	Sarachim 8.57 	 0.43 	Zephyr Tempest 8.40 	 -   	Djur 8.35 	 -   	Creator Lael 8.29 	 1.24 	BainIhrno 7.89 	 1.18 	Goldenking 7.86 	 2.75 	Nioca 7.84 	 -   	Lt. Sullust 7.78 	 0.39 	Andraste 7.44 	 1.86 	Niemand 7.41 	 -   	VCH 6.76 	 1.69 	Tyranicus 6.50 	 0.98 	Nicothodes 6.44 	 0.32 	Icshi 6.37 	 0.96 	Frozen Feet 6.34 	 0.32 	Sir David 6.14 	 1.53 	Smoo 6.07 	 -   	Schrodinger 5.53 	 -   	Morgan 5.39 	 2.43 	Celtic Minstrel 5.32 	 1.86 	Safey 5.25 	 1.31 	Lazarus 5.12 	 1.79 	Nemesis 5.09 	 -   	Zxquez 4.99 	 2.25 	Iffy 4.94 	 2.22 	Excalibur 4.84 	 1.21 	Marlenny 4.73 	 1.66 	Dintiradan 4.70 	 1.17 	Synergy 4.69 	 1.64 	The Mystic 4.68 	 -   	Radiant 4.67 	 0.47 	Rosycat 4.57 	 0.69 	Ben 4.50 	 1.12 	Thralni 4.43 	 0.22 	Wise Man 4.33 	 1.95 	The Ratt 4.32 	 -   	Arctic 4.29 	 1.50 	Lenar 4.17 	 -   	Brett Bixler 4.14 	 0.62 	Drew 4.14 	 1.86 	Ackrovan 3.86 	 0.96 	Infernal 3.80 	 0.95 	Fatman 3.43 	 0.34 	Stughalf 3.39 	 0.17 	SMoE 3.19 	 -   	Shotts 3.19 	 0.16 	Order Mage 2.85 	 0.14 	Lady J 2.67 	 -   	Ed Lemur 2.54 	 0.89 	Stillness 2.33 	 0.58 	Dolphin 2.33 	 -   	Seletine

 

Not much changes other than traditionally defined oldbies moving lower on the list. A few individual members have somewhat substantial jumps, but the list isn't all that different from the above list. Still, I would agree that this is a generally more interesting metric.

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Ok, wait. Here's ANOTHER take: this time, I've eliminated the "years present" factor as well, instead assuming that influence felt over time will be reflected in postcount and the boolean variables. Look at this one:

 

Code:
 3.84 	Drakey 3.73 	TM 3.05 	Stareye 3.04 	Alec 2.71 	Arancaytar 2.71 	Alorael 2.52 	Slarty 2.37 	Dikiyoba 2.33 	Ephesos 2.31 	Thurilith 2.29 	ETSDe 2.22 	Kelandon 2.07 	Salmon 1.96 	Dantdringissonika Slugfort 1.86 	Randomizer 1.71 	Zephyr Tempest 1.69 	Tyranicus 1.66 	Nikki 1.62 	Zeviz 1.61 	Marlenny 1.60 	Shotts 1.59 	Order Mage 1.58 	Saunders 1.57 	Nioca 1.57 	Synergy 1.56 	ADoS 1.56 	Rosycat 1.52 	Ben 1.51 	SoT 1.50 	Thralni 1.47 	Delicious Vlish 1.43 	Iffy 1.42 	Lady J 1.41 	Jewels 1.40 	Djur 1.39 	Creator Lael 1.39 	Brett Bixler 1.39 	Imban 1.36 	Archmage Alex 1.35 	Schrodinger 1.35 	Celtic Minstrel 1.34 	Mysterious Man 1.34 	Ed Lemur 1.31 	Lazarus 1.30 	Nicothodes 1.29 	Icshi 1.29 	Infernal 1.28 	Nemesis 1.27 	Khoth 1.27 	Zxquez 1.27 	Scorpius 1.27 	Sir David 1.27 	Stillness 1.27 	Fatman 1.27 	Wise Man 1.24 	Niemand 1.23 	VCH 1.23 	Excalibur 1.23 	Morgan 1.23 	Smoo 1.21 	Lt. Sullust 1.18 	BainIhrno 1.18 	Dintiradan 1.18 	Drew 1.18 	Ackrovan 1.17 	The Mystic 1.17 	Radiant 1.16 	Dolphin 1.16 	Seletine 1.15 	Enraged Slith 1.14 	Stughalf 1.13 	SMoE 1.13 	Goldenking 1.11 	Andraste 1.08 	The Ratt 1.08 	Arctic 1.08 	Sarachim 1.07 	Lenar 1.06 	Safey 1.06 	Frozen Feet

 

Potentially even more interesting, but I think it would need tweaking, and especially expansion, of the booleans to really mean much.

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Quote:
—Alorael, who upon reflection thinks that it is necessarily going to be true that different generations of members look at different members with different estimations of oldbesity. When your contributions are forgotten even if you aren't really gone, more recent members are less likely to view you as both an old members and a core member. Being around a long time helps, but it's much better for building up a reputation to have your major contributions and major posting efforts be in recent memory.


Well, to me, everyone that I didn't see join is a member of a mysterious, elite forum cabal to which I am but a worthless bystander.
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Originally Posted By: CRISIS on INFINITE SLARTIES
I believe my estimation for you was 3500 posts. Does that sound about right?


That might even be a bit generous. If I remembered my old logins I would check, but alas, I do not, and the member numbers I remember are from the old board.
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Originally Posted By: Lilith
Originally Posted By: Eld
Well, to me, everyone that I didn't see join is a member of a mysterious, elite forum cabal to which I am but a worthless bystander.


this is actually true, it's called desperance

This was called Desperance. Today, Spiderweb is off the rails. Our future is uncertain. One single man or woman can tip the balance to a brave new future or to utter chaos.

No, wait. That's Geneforge.

—Alorael, who likes the last list most. Sure, it's still not exactly as he'd list names, but it sure looks like a better list to him. Having Drakey, TM, and *i on the top of the pile is rather correct.
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