The Future of Computing

[Actaeon]

Where do you see computing in five years? Ten? Twenty? Will mobile devices and cloud computing all be replace desktops? Will even our work stations be controlled by touch? Motion? Thoughts? Will Linux and other open source projects overtake Apple, Microsoft, and the rest? Will traditional television be replaced by Hulu and whatever TV system Jobs thought up? Will we resort to implanting computers in our eyes or under our skin? Will Google rule the world?

 

Implicit in the question, of course, is where Spiderweb will be in such a world.

[Callie]

The tech industry can change so quickly that I don't think there's an accurate way of predicting where it will be ten years in the future.

 

Maybe someday we'll all have a mind-machine interface and programmers will absent-mindedly upload improvements in their sleep, although that risks unintentional integration of fluffy turtles.

[Randomizer]

Considering how many companies failed to mass market tablets before Apple's iPad, even if you figure out the next big thing it may not be common for years.

[BMA]

I like the idea of the in-mind interface.

 

Maybe a chip could be planted in your brain, so that closing your eyes for a second triggers a control panel's appearance in front of you. You then concentrate on a particular button to 'press' that control.

 

Which can then be used for, maybe, turning the television on or handling other mundane objects.

[Actaeon]

I guess if I was going to go the mind control route, I'd go for a moderately less invasive brain stem approach.

[Aran]

Originally Posted By: BMA

I like the idea of the in-mind interface.

Maybe a chip could be planted in your brain, so that closing your eyes for a second triggers a control panel's appearance in front of you.

Which can then be used for turning the television on.

Meanwhile in Soviet Russia, television controls chip in your brain.

[Dikiyoba]

Originally Posted By: Actaeon

Will traditional television be replaced by Hulu and whatever TV system Jobs thought up?

I think that "traditional" television is on its way out, if not already gone, but that television itself is proving adaptable. I mean, between recording devices like TiVo, DVD collections for most popular TV shows, video-on-demand both on TV and on Internet sites like Hulu, you no longer have to watch TV shows when they air. You can pretty much get whatever show you want whenever you want it. I think the future of TV will focus on providing more niche programming and more personalized experiences. We already have specialized TV networks and interactive TV is starting to appear.

One downside is that more traditional genres like dramas may suffer; we're already seeing the switch to reality shows and documentary series because it's cheaper just to hire a camera crew to follow some schmucks around rather than needing to pay for the writers, actors, sets, costumes, etc. Another downside is more targeted advertisements. Or in Hulu's case, just more obnoxious advertisements. A third downside is that we'll never be able to talk about television again, because we'll all be watching our own shows and because if two people who ever do watch the same show meet, they'll never see the same episode at the same time and so every conversation will be vague and general for fear of revealing (and hence getting yelled at for) or accidentally running across spoilers.

Dikiyoba.

[keira]

Maybe time travel is possible, and there's someone out there who knows what it'll be like in ten years, dying to talk about what the future's like, but afraid of spoiling the ending for everyone.

[Enraged Slith]

I'm still waiting for an explanation about why I need all of the computing power I have at home in a phone. Maybe this is just my crabby hermit talking, but it's not really all that convenient of a service if you're constantly tied to it.

 

I'm already disturbed at how dependent I've become on having a stable internet connection. Going a few days without being able to look up random factoids on the internet is an incredibly draining experience.

[Randomizer]

Traditional TV will be around as long as it's free. Since you can record shows for later viewing yourself there won't be the demand to have everything over another system for us cheapskates.

 

Besides do you really want someone else like TiVo knowing how many times your watch that costume failure during the Super Bowl? With TiVo's and other companies doing predictive guess about what you want to watch based upon what you have watched soon they will control what you can watch.

 

I still hate YouTube's guess for suggested videos. It's split between what I've seen and don't want to watch again and stuff that I never want to watch in the first place.

[Callie]

Originally Posted By: Dikiyoba

Or in Hulu's case, just more obnoxious advertisements.

Hulu seems to think I'm a chic 25-year old woman in desperate need of cheaper car insurance. And yet, all I watch there is the Daily Show, the Simpsons, and sometimes House.

On a completely unrelated note: It will be interesting to see the supreme court's ruling in Fox v. FCC.

[Aran]

Hulu seems to think I'm outside the United States.

 

(It's right, of course, I just wish it didn't notice.)

[Actaeon]

Some services (Google Voice, for instance) can be used oversees provided you register where they're allowed. I'm not advocating taking a trip to the US to get Hulu, Aran, but I do wonder if an American Hulu Plus subscriber could get their shows while abroad (which, of course, is a top priority).

[Randomizer]

That's nothing a good proxy can't fix.

[Alorael at Large]

Diki, I think many of your predictions are pessimistic. TV is going to have to adapt, but it is. Shows still make money; maybe not as many, but some do. There may be more micropatronage and crowdsourcing and all those other buzzwords, but the the shows will go on. And they'll keep releasing content at a certain time, and the fans will still grab onto it quickly and discuss it with each other and the internet immediately. If anything, the new devices allowing lower costs of at-home production with quite high values means that there can be more shows, good shows, on a shoestring budget supported by small, ardent fanbases.

 

As for computers, it's hard to know. Mind-machine interfaces are a thing of the present, but rare and far more awkward than using a mouse/keyboard/touchscreen. They'll get better; I wouldn't put money on them being widespread in the next two decades, but I wouldn't bet against it, either. I'm sure more and more will end up in the cloud, but pads and phones can only go so far. For some things, large screens are just too important.

 

—Alorael, who can't predict huge paradigm shifts. That's how paradigm shifts work. But barring something major, he thinks computers will go on as they have been going on for the past couple of decades: more devices, with more power, talking to each other more and faster. Everything will be wirelessly connected, many things will be on the cloud, and everyone will feel positively poleaxed if deprived of the devices that give access to his or her exocortex. (Appropriated vocabulary of Charles Stross et al.)

[Dantius]

Originally Posted By: Actaeon

Where do you see computing in five years? Ten? Twenty? Will mobile devices and cloud computing all be replace desktops? Will even our work stations be controlled by touch? Motion? Thoughts? Will Linux and other open source projects overtake Apple, Microsoft, and the rest? Will traditional television be replaced by Hulu and whatever TV system Jobs thought up? Will we resort to implanting computers in our eyes or under our skin? Will Google rule the world?

Implicit in the question, of course, is where Spiderweb will be in such a world.

No, yes, yes, no, never, no, I certainly will, probably, right here.

[Xaiya]

My paranoia extends to that I will never, ever have a chip implanted into my brain. No matter how cool it would be to interface with your mind and have your health and energy bars to display at the top of your vision.

 

There'd probably be a different way of interface, anyways. Maybe some goggles that detect eye movement or whatever. Or perhaps we could, gasp, continue the use of controllers. Touch screens will likely become even more common for that purpose.

 

As for other computer advances, I'd love to see the rise of virtual world technology.

[Callie]

Originally Posted By: Iffy

Or perhaps we could, gasp, continue the use of controllers. Touch screens will likely become even more common for that purpose.

Nintendo is already coming out with a hybrid touchscreen controller. It looks about as awkward as you'd expect it to be.

Click to reveal.. (Warning: Spider!)

[Rowen]

Originally Posted By: Excalibur

Nintendo is already coming out with a hybrid touchscreen controller. It looks about as awkward as you'd expect it to be.

Awkward or not, I know that I'll still get the wii u.

[Skwish-E]

One word ... TRINARY

[Rowen]

Originally Posted By: Actaeon

Where do you see computing in five years? Ten? Twenty?

[Sullust]

Originally Posted By: Iffy

My paranoia extends to that I will never, ever have a chip implanted into my brain. No matter how cool it would be to interface with your mind and have your health and energy bars to display at the top of your vision.

I'm with Iffy on this. I'm not too concerned about direct mind control (though the idea of someone putting together a photoshop for memories is very concerning). The bigger problem would be judges issuing warrants for your memories to verify whether or not you committed a crime.

[Actaeon]

Originally Posted By: uǝʍoɹ

Originally Posted By: Actaeon

Where do you see computing in five years? Ten? Twenty?

All that and they couldn't transmit the license info wirelessly?

[Enraged Slith]

Originally Posted By: Excalibur

Originally Posted By: Iffy

Or perhaps we could, gasp, continue the use of controllers. Touch screens will likely become even more common for that purpose.

Nintendo is already coming out with a hybrid touchscreen controller. It looks about as awkward as you'd expect it to be.

Click to reveal.. (Warning: Spider!)

This reminds me of those horrible Gamecube days where every single interesting multiplayer game required four GBAs and four GBA connecter cables to play.

[Alorael at Large]

I think storing anything meaningful to the human brain, or being able to have machine to brain input, is more than twenty years away. I could be wrong, of course, but I'd be surprised. And it'd have to be pretty seriously improved over non-implanted devices to make it worth the brain surgery, with the attendant costs and risks.

 

As for getting something implanted at all, some of the interface devices use implanted electrodes, but many don't anymore. Devices are getting better and better at reading our minds from outside our heads, and it's a lot easier to sell a glasses and a funny-looking hat to people than a new hole in the head.

 

—Alorael, who assumes that even in the future there will be devices that don't have any connectivity for security reasons. Not many, but some.

[Harehunter]

Just waiting for the next 20 cent change.

[Actaeon]

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/04/google-begins-testing-its-augmented-reality-glasses/

[Harehunter]

I saw a news report on that the other day. I certainly hope there is an off switch to those things. Can you imagine the traffic jams those things would cause due to some stupid little email icon pops up into your view just as traffic ahead is rapidly slowing down due to rubbernecking the opposite lanes, due to some yahoo causing a wreck by being distracted by his Google Eyes.

 

BTW. Yes using a cell phone while driving is distracting and dangerous, there is one major difference between that person and the guy driving while intoxicated. That cell phone can be turned off or at least ignored, instantly making the driver more safe. The guy with alcohol in his system... The only way to make him safer is to pull him off the road immediately.

[Student of Trinity]

Originally Posted By: Enraged Slith

I'm already disturbed at how dependent I've become on having a stable internet connection. Going a few days without being able to look up random factoids on the internet is an incredibly draining experience.

I'm picking this up from two pages ago because I've just spent six weeks away from all that, for exactly this reason. Happily I can report that it really wasn't that bad. Or maybe it's worse.

I didn't miss the Internet itself much at all. I did miss the easy access to distraction and procrastination. But it turns out that old media like books still work fine for that. Things haven't changed as much as I thought, really. They've mostly just changed form a bit.