March Madness-y Thing: Election Edition

[Callie]

The US is having an election in less than 50 days. In the past I've just posted a poll of who voted (or would have voted) for whom, but this time I wanted to include an opportunity to win the meaningless approbation of one's peers. The premise is simple: you will submit a map or list of which states will be won by whom, and the person with the submission closest to the actual result wins. I thought of a number of scoring methods, but after discussing it on CalRef, have decided to simply have a tentative scoring system of 1 point/state (and DC) for a total of 51 points*.

 

You may make a submission by either posting in this thread, sending me a private message, or telling me in Ligrev's Lounge (CalRef's chatroom). The winner will be determined once the Associated Press calls the results for all contests**. There could possibly be a recount in one or more states, in which case we'd just have to wait. Hopefully we won't have a repeat of 2000. 270towin is a convenient way to submit a map (if you think a third-party candidate will win a state just leave it blank or say otherwise). You may make submissions, or change your submissions until September 26th (the night of the first debate).

 

Note that the scoring I have chosen is tentative. If you would like a different method, say so in the thread and I will change it accordingly if enough people agree. (For example, one idea I had was to multiply the score by a factor of (ECs correct/538). Good luck.

 

*Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes: the person who wins a plurality of the votes in the state as a whole wins two electoral votes, then one electoral vote is awarded to the winner of each congressional district (for example, in 2008 McCain won Nebraska statewide in addition to two congressional districts, so he received four electoral votes. Obama won one of the districts and won electoral vote). Those two states will be one point as a whole, but the point is split along with the ECs. Nebraska will be .4 points for statewide and .2 for each congressional district. Maine will be .5 for statewide and .25 for each congressional district.

**Electors have voted in the past for a ticket they were not bound to (called faithless electors). For example, one elector in 2004 was bound to vote Kerry for president and Edwards for vice president, but voted Edwards for president and Kerry for vice president instead. Since it would be pretty much impossible to predict this, it will not be included in the score, as it has never decided the outcome of an election. If it does decide the outcome of the election, I uh... that would be interesting.

[Dintiradan]

(06:29:29 PM) Cenobite Sybarite: JILL STEIN IS GOING TO WIN ALL 50 STATES

[Kelandon]

At the moment, my prediction is the 2008 map except Indiana going red. When is the deadline for a prediction?

[Tyranicus]

(06:29:29 PM) Cenobite Sybarite: JILL STEIN IS GOING TO WIN ALL 50 STATES

Will she also win DC?

[Callie]

At the moment, my prediction is the 2008 map except Indiana going red. When is the deadline for a prediction?

You may make submissions, or change your submissions until the morning of September 30th (the first presidential debate is that night).

 

Also, here is my admittedly odd map. This makes a total of five submissions so far. Keep it up!

[Dintiradan]

Will she also win DC?

JEFF VOGEL WINS DC AS A WRITE-IN CANDIDATE

[Callie]

Correction: the first debate is in fact on the 26th, not the 30th, so the 26th is now the due date.

[Kelandon]

Also, here is my admittedly odd map.

You are predicting a massive landslide. Like, a 10+ point swing from current standings, large enough that the House would probably flip.

 

Out of curiosity, why? (Given current polls, trends, etc.)

[Callie]

It is just conjecture because I have no idea with this election. All kinds of things could happen.

[Kelandon]

All right, my revised prediction: the 2012 map except that Iowa goes red. This is my best guess based on present circumstances and the path of the campaigns so far.

[Rowen]

I would like to place my money on a record low for voter turn out.

[keira]

Here's my "based entirely on stereotypes of Florida people" map, in which i have done no research or looked at any polls. i guess it's a bit close?

 

https://cdn.calref.net/files.calref/16/12814318_dragSy.png

[BainIhrno]

My prediction for now - 2012, with Clinton flipping North Carolina and Trump flipping Iowa and Maine's 2nd District. Nebraska's 2nd District and Georgia are possible for Clinton, though she may be the underdog there. Actually, Sylae's map might be fairly reasonable except I strongly doubt Michigan goes red.

 

As far as the Senate, which I seem to be the first to mention, I believe Democrats will almost certainly pick up Illinois and Wisconsin, Democrat Evan Bayh appears to be the favorite in my home state of Indiana (despite Trump being the favorite here), but we'll see how things progress. I think Ds have the edge in PA and NH (some recent polls had Ayotte leading, but I'm skeptical). GOP leading in NV-Senate (Republicans only chance for a pickup), but polls have underestimated Democrats here before.

 

The Republicans are ahead in FL, NC, and MO Senate races, but Democrats could pull some upsets here.

 

By the way, when I was a senior in high school, eight years ago, we were watching Donald Trump ("The Apprentice") in economics class.

[Actaeon]

Hopefully I'm in under the wire. http://www.270towin.com/maps/VgY76

[Dintiradan]

 

BONUS CHALLENGE: How many states will hold recounts?

[Callie]

I'll just go with zero, thanks.

[Dintiradan]

That's boooooring.

 

My prediction: EVERY STATE BUT FLORIDA.

[Callie]

Michigan, Arizona, and New Hampshire have yet to be called. I had eight submissions, but Actaeon will win regardless of the results in those states (even though Neb was the only one who predicted Trump winning). Congratulations Actaeon, who have won the meaningless approbation of your peers!

 

I will post the scores and rankings once those three states have been called.

 

I would like to place my money on a record low for voter turn out.

Your hypothetical money has been lost.

[Callie]

I highly, highly doubt a recount in Wisconsin is going to change anything, so here are our scores (with incorrect contests in parentheses):

 

1. Actaeon: 48 (MI, PA, WI)

2. Sylae: 47.55 (IA, ME2, NE2, PA, WI)

3. Kelandon: 45.75 (FL, ME2, MI, OH, PA, WI)

4. BainIhrno: 45 (FL, MI, NC, OH, PA, WI)

5. Neb: 44.75 (IA, NV, ME2, MI, PA, VA, WI) [only one to predict Trump winning]

5. Tyran: 44.75 (FL, IA, NC, NV, ME2, MI, PA)

6. Callie: 37.55 (AK, AZ, FL, GA, IA, ME2, MI, MO, MT, NC, NE2, OH, PA, SD, WI)

7. Dintiradan: 0 (everything)

[Tyranicus]

I see I was the only one to predict Wisconsin going Red, and no one though Michigan or Pennsylvania would.

[keira]

I got michigan actually

[Tyranicus]

I got michigan actually

 

So you did. I missed that somehow. No one guessed Pennsylvania though. I wasn't expecting it, and I live here.

[Actaeon]

Wait, I won? I am the champion! Of course, we all predicted the wrong overall result, so it's a bit of a lukewarm victory.