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Gaia theorist calls for the suspension of democracy


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James Lovelock, whose book was my own bible when i was younger, has said that the climate threat is so severe, that it may be necessary to suspend democracy to deal with it. Here is the article:

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/mar/29/james-lovelock

 

And here is a discussion of it on bbc radio:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00sfwtc

 

The host Justin Rowlatt has done lots of programmes on his own journey to try and cut his carbon footprint that are really quite good and quite amusing as well.

 

So the question in my mind is, is anything worth suspending democracy for, and if it is, how do you get it back after you've achieved your goal?

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What, in this context, would you mean by "democracy?" Important to define that before one decides about its "suspension." Democracy is technically a form of government, but he mentioned egalitarianism in that part of the interview, which more a cultural or social idea. In other contexts, I've heard democracy used practically synonymously with individual liberty. So what do you, or Lovelock, mean by it?

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I guess that most people see democracy as being the ability to elect representatives to a governing body that reflect ones views and concerns. In the case of the article and the radio interview they will be talking about established Government norms in western societies, not libertarianism.

 

here is a copy and paste from the article:

Quote:
We need a more authoritative world. We've become a sort of cheeky, egalitarian world where everyone can have their say. It's all very well, but there are certain circumstances – a war is a typical example – where you can't do that. You've got to have a few people with authority who you trust who are running it. And they should be very accountable too, of course.

 

But it can't happen in a modern democracy. This is one of the problems. What's the alternative to democracy? There isn't one. But even the best democracies agree that when a major war approaches, democracy must be put on hold for the time being. I have a feeling that climate change may be an issue as severe as a war. It may be necessary to put democracy on hold for a while.

 

That was Lovelock, who of course wrote the groundbreaking book in the early '70's that along with the book Silent Earth helped kickstart the environmental movement.

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Democracy is not very effective when it comes to world interests because the very nature of Western democracy sees to the interests of the individual. It ensures that the desires of each person or small communities of people are equally represented, and so the needs of the whole are often lost. Madison wrote about this at length, calling it the problem of factions. As a result, we have a bad habit of ignoring the long term or the greater good because every small faction in Western democracy is trying further their own agenda and thus things that should be obvious fall by the wayside. An enlightened dictatorship could solve this problem, but has one of those ever existed? No, and I doubt even our advanced technology level would allow for one.

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In theory, emergency suspension of democracy in favor of temporary dictatorship can work just fine.

 

For example, take the Roman hero, Cincinnatus. In a time of grave peril for the Roman Republic, the Senate made Cincinnatus dictator of Rome. Cincinnatus, being the wise dude that he was, managed to resolve the crisis in a timely manner, and then stepped down from power.

 

Or take a later reprisal in history, the American hero, George Washington. Mr. Washington feasibly had the ability to declare himself King of America, as the forefathers of the country wrote important pieces of paper, such as the Constitution. Not only did he not do that, he resigned from his power as Commander-in-Chief, and later set the precedent of only serving two terms as President.

 

However, there is a reason people like Cincinnatus and Washington are seen as exemplary people. For every leader who shuns absolute power, there are those who crave it. Look at the absolute monarchs of Europe, and specifically Louis XIV, the Sun King. Remember the Julio-Claudian Emperors of Rome, who, according to Augustus, were theoretically going to return power to the Republic eventually. All of these people tasted power and never let it go.

 

Now, look at the current world. Would you want a suspension of power placing Bush as the dictator of America? In this age of political scandals and partisanship, would you really trust any politician to be dictator of America, Canada, or Australia? Furthermore, how does this suspension of democracy play out in the United Kingdom, with a reversion to a powerful monarchy under Queen Elizabeth II, or allowing the Prime Minister to become the leader?

 

To quote the infinite wisdom of those before me, "Absolute power corrupts absolutely," and "With great power comes great responsibility."

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Originally Posted By: Goldenking
Would you want a suspension of power placing Bush as the dictator of America?
After a total of twelve years of unbridled idiocy by George and George W., the only Bush I ever want to see in the White House is a potted plant.
Quote:
In this age of political scandals and partisanship, would you really trust any politician to be dictator of America, Canada, or Australia?
Would you trust any politician to be dictator of anything? Or, for that matter, would you trust any politician, anywhere? In both cases, my answer is a resounding "No."
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Thomas Friedman has been writing about how China's ability to impose large-scale changes from the top down gives them the ability to effect infrastructure overhaul and sudden switches to green technology. It's handy for things like dealing with crisis and, well, infrastructure.

 

—Alorael, who still wouldn't want to live in China. He likes his free press so that Fox can be counterbalanced by things that aren't Fox. He's also a fan of the internet.

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I have merely two things to say on this matter:

 

1. (this is nitpicking, really) America, as a republic holds popular election to decide who will run the country. You could have strong central government and still have a republic, indeed, you could have a virtually autocratic state that still had free and fair elections and the leader stepped down if he was ever voted out of office. Of course, the problem with this would be that the temptation to seize power would increase to the point where a dictatorship would be inevitable if a Robespierre got power. This would be able to effectively deal with problems while still fitting conventional images of a "democracy" perfectly well.

 

2. (this is the important bit) Why the hell should I care what a drugged-up ex-hippie who spouts pseudoscientific nonsense about "Gaia" has to say on anything, much less governmental authority?

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Originally Posted By: Nalyd
Did you read the first link? Seems pretty intelligent, though most of it's common sense.

I just did, and, no, it doesn't, exactly. He makes a lot of assertions about the conduct of science today that he doesn't support and with which I disagree, on the basis of my personal observations. His discussion of climate change, later in the article seemed more reasonable on the whole, but I was less interested in that portion.

Originally Posted By: Lovelock
Science, not so very long ago, pre-1960s, was largely vocational. Back when I was young, I didn't want to do anything else other than be a scientist. They're not like that nowadays. They don't give a damn. They go to these massive, mass-produced universities and churn them out. They say: "Science is a good career. You can get a job for life doing government work." That's no way to do science.

I know and work with a goodly number of scientists, and this isn't descriptive of any of them. The one's I've met tend to be quite passionate about doing science, and doing it in the best ways they can think of. Indeed, this is very much expected of anyone pursuing an advanced degree at any of the departments I've visited.

Originally Posted By: Lovelock
In the old days, it was perfectly OK to make a mistake and say so. You often learned from it. Nowadays if you're dependent on a grant – and 99% of them are – you can't make mistakes as you won't get another one if you do.

From my observation there are a number of cases relatively recently in fields with which I am more familiar in which research groups have appeared to make mistakes, and have either admitted it, or have been countered by findings from other groups, without being cut off from further grants and tossed out on the streets. Falsifying data and more frequently honest mistakes both happen, but I'm not all that aware of scientists being terrified of having their careers destroyed by the latter, or panicking and doing the former.

Originally Posted By: Lovelock
I think it was felt there was far too much inequality in science and there was an enormous redress. Looking around the country [at the wider society] this was good on the whole, but in some special professions you want the best, the elite. Elitism is important in science. It is vital.

I'm not sure what he's talking about here. I agree that elitism, in the form of trying to get work done by the most skilled and careful workers available, is desirable. However, most scientific work now is so specialized that there are only handfuls of people who have devoted their efforts to any given problem, particularly given that for any given science problem, there may be several approaches to designing and running an experiment, each with its own specific details and concomitant problems.

Originally Posted By: Lovelock
I would only have been too pleased if someone had asked me for my data. If you really believed in your data, you wouldn't mind someone looking at it. You should be able to respond that if you don't believe me go out and do the measurements yourself.

You don't hide data. But there are some natural limitations to making data public.

This bit, however, is spot on. There's a lot of controversy in the astro-particle physics community surrounding the DAMA experiment due to its refusal, so far, to release the actual data sets underlying the figures shown in publications.

Originally Posted By: Lovelock
But the damn fool scientists were so mad on the models that they said the satellite must have a fault. We tend to now get carried away by our giant computer models. But they're not complete models.

Here, again, he rails against something that I don't believe is a real trend. From what I see, scientists complain constantly that they need their simulation models, but they know the models just aren't right, to greater or lesser extents. There is a constant discussion in my group about our modeling of polar ice, for example. Models of cosmic ray propagation are widely used, with suspicion that they may well lack fundamental details. Most users of these simulations seem to have a high level of consciousness that they can't blindly trust the computers' output.
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Originally Posted By: Niemand
I'm not sure what he's talking about here. I agree that elitism, in the form of trying to get work done by the most skilled and careful workers available, is desirable. However, most scientific work now is so specialized that there are only handfuls of people who have devoted their efforts to any given problem, particularly given that for any given science problem, there may be several approaches to designing and running an experiment, each with its own specific details and concomitant problems.


I think in that bit he's just saying that experts need to be given more power to directly implement solutions to major social problems within their areas of expertise, regardless of whether the general public understands or supports those solutions.
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Originally Posted By: Ephesos
Originally Posted By: eCool
I wasn't talking about his views on science, since I have no way of knowing whether they're right or not.


Technically, nobody can verify any of Lovelock's theories... not enough data, and the causality is pretty weak in most cases.


Not being able to verify a theory doesn't automatically disprove it. Many ideas existed for centuries before they were verified by scientific method.

Some of the arguments against Lovelock's ideas are pretty weak.
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Originally Posted By: waterplant
Not being able to verify a theory doesn't automatically disprove it. Many ideas existed for centuries before they were verified by scientific method.

Some of the arguments against Lovelock's ideas are pretty weak.


Yes, you're right, I should've clarified. Accepting an idea like the Gaia Hypothesis requires not as much proof as it requires a belief, a viewpoint. Specifically, a very loose definition of "organism". To me, such an argument is inelegant because it rests on that one initial assumption which cannot be proven or disproven, because it is simply a defining of terms.
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Lots of systems tend to maintain some sort of equilibrium. A puddle, for instance. The water tends to flow back in, if some of it is splashed out. More complicated systems can have a longer story to how they tend to restore themselves.

 

Living organisms are examples of complex metastable systems. A metastable system is one that is stable unless the disturbances are too large, or unless you wait too long. An unconditionally stable system would really be forever. So the earth is not stable; eventually it will die one way or another, and it could probably go bad more quickly if something bad enough happened to it. But if it weren't at least metastable, it wouldn't have lasted this long.

 

So the earth is another example of a complex metastable system, and to this extent it is like an organism. Thinking of it as an organism is useful if it makes the abstract concept of metastability clearer. It tends to restore itself, in complicated ways, but its ability to do so is not unlimited. Saying that it tries to survive, but could die, is not a bad metaphor.

 

But the 'Gaia hypothesis' is still at best a metaphor, even if a good one, and not a scientific hypothesis, because it has no actual content. Nothing the earth might do because it was a living organism would be different from what it would do as a complex metastable system that was not alive. So the Gaia 'hypothesis' has no consequences at all, let alone testable ones.

 

And even as a mere metaphor the Gaia hypothesis has some problems. Living organisms are remarkable in doing more than just maintaining equilibrium. They reproduce. Indeed, you can make a good case that organisms are simply vehicles for genes, and any tendencies they have to maintaining equilibrium are incidental means to the end of reproduction.

 

The earth as a whole has not done a lot of reproduction, as far as we know, unless there has been some remarkably discreet wandering from orbits. I guess that could explain how we got this anomalously large moon, though.

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Originally Posted By: boggle
Originally Posted By: Dintiradan
Quote:
If anything on Earth is its reproductive system, it's us.
Yeah, beat me to it. Terraforming other planets in the distant future to be more Earth-like could be a form of reproduction.


You sound like Asimov

Nah, he'd sound like Asimov if he appended that with "...if it wasn't for this petty superstitious beliefs holding us back"
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We don't need to suspend democracy. We just need to build the Weather Paradigm.

 

—Alorael, who upon further consideration has decided that suspending democracy doesn't get things done all that well. China can manage some substantial and sudden initiatives with heavily adulterated democracy, but then compare the Soviet Union. (It's hard to directly compare democracy and authoritarianism without mixing in capitalism versus communism if you want to compare countries from the same era and roughly the same level of development.)

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Originally Posted By: Two Days at Rest
We don't need to suspend democracy. We just need to build the Weather Paradigm.

—Alorael, who upon further consideration has decided that suspending democracy doesn't get things done all that well. China can manage some substantial and sudden initiatives with heavily adulterated democracy, but then compare the Soviet Union. (It's hard to directly compare democracy and authoritarianism without mixing in capitalism versus communism if you want to compare countries from the same era and roughly the same level of development.)


Argentina would probably have been a better comparison for making your point. Even without considering the difference in its political ideology, the Soviet Union actually got quite a lot done, when you consider that Russia started out as basically a pre-industrial society.
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The Soviet Union advanced. So did China. They also weren't socially/politically sustainable, and their stability is open to question. Of course that's a rather contentious pronouncement to drop, but I think getting the general citizenry on board with projects works better than imposing from above forever.

 

Martial law to deal with climate change, though? Totally okay.

 

—Alorael, who also thinks the US has the unusual (though not unique) problem of thousands upon thousands of gun-toting nuts who would open fire on everything and everyone if democracy were suspended.

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Originally Posted By: Three Days a Yahtzee Game
The Soviet Union advanced. So did China. They also weren't socially/politically sustainable, and their stability is open to question.


what, and our present society is? all signs so far suggest that democracy leads to funding things by increasing amounts of debt, which only works as long as there are non-democratic societies (china) to hold that debt
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