Mea Tulpa

I'm surprised more people didn't want to run the new class.

It's an annual sale, actually.

You mean we still don't get to court Litalia? ø_ø

Yeah, I wasn't too hot on the iVlish either. But being able to cast Mass Invulnerability really makes up for it, imho.

Nephil's Gambit had some not particularly explained potential wrong turns in the plot at Flickering Keep that looked like bugs, but weren't. For one thing, depending on what you do in the dream sequence it is possible to have your PCs *actually* die and not come back to life. You may be doing it wrong.

The new class is gonna be the clear winner, hands down -- but we knew this two years ago.

If it was made for G1, why in the world is "G3" in the title?

/9th and final class.

Darn. Well, thanks for checking Ghaldring.

You know, I think I've seen that too. It probably just means the chitrach was assigned riposte skill but not parry skill -- and suggests that Thuryl's assumption about how riposte applied was correct after all.

My goal is to validate or invalidate the hypothesis -- which is NOT that parry reduces the chance to be hit. The hypothesis is that parry reduces the chance of a damage message occuring, for whatever reason.

Parry *did* have an obvious efect on missile and magical damage in A4. That I'm quite sure of, although the effect on magical damage types was a bit weaker than on physical damage. Jeff also reduced the parry chance from 5% per capped-point to 3% per capped-point between A4 and A5, so it's not implausible that that was the extent of his meddling. Particularly because, as you suggest, I think he's more likely to twiddle a few numbers than add and remove effects entirely.

That makes sense. My point is that, even if we can't have complete confidence in the results, they are still more likely than a stab in the dark to lead us in the right direction. Our goal isn't to obtain statistically significant results, our goal is to come up with a theory of what Parry does and what is going on here that can accurately predict what will happen. In other words, even if those results were completely significant, that wouldn't solve the problem, so the fact that they are not significant at whatever level is beside the point. Thuryl, what do you make of this whole mess? What do you think is actually going on with Parry -- best hypothesis?

I'm not an expert on statistics, so this is an actual question: how do slightly overlapping confidence intervals demolish statistical significance? That doesn't make much sense to me. It sounds like that would lower our confidence that the data is significant, but not reduce it to zero.

Originally Posted By: feo takahari We already know the effects of stats have, in earlier Spiderweb games, demonstrably differed from computer to computer. Perhaps on some computers the skill malfunctions? Or could this be a difference between the Mac and Windows versions? P.S. Anyone get the feeling Spiderweb really needs enough money to hire more people to deal with this stuff? I am on OS X, so I suppose this is possible. That said, I remain skeptical of this. This was most frequently said about Blades of Exile, and I note that, now that the source code has been released and pored over quite heavily, nobody has found anything suggesting why this would be so. I blame people jumping to false conclusions and refusing to believe they are wrong. (Which is always a danger, and why I insist on running empirical tests.)

I couldn't find my old data, so I went and gathered some new data. The results are interesting and suggest that neither one of us has it exactly right. Test environment: Level 10 character, 81% armor, 0 and 10 Parry respectively, getting beat on by Fierce Scuttlers. 40 trials for each set. "Dmg Took" and "Dmg Blocked" are the averages of the numbers the game gave out for damage taken, and for damage "blocked". "Total" is their sum. The numbers in parentheses are the ranges of data observed. Code: Parry Dmg Took Dmg Blocked Total % Blocked---- ------------ ------------ ------------ -------------- 0 6.9 ( 2-11) 12.2 ( 5-20) 19.1 (13-30) 63.5% (38-85%) 10 7.8 ( 4-13) 8.8 ( 4-15) 16.5 ( 9-23) 53.3% (29-79%) So I took conistently more damage with Parry than without. However, damage taken before armor was consistently lower with Parry, and lower by about the amount predicted by the Parry, uh, believers. Moreover, Parry reduced the amount of damage reported as blocked. After scratching my head, I ran another test to look at hit rates. This was more interesting. The printed hit rate was 22%, by the way. I allowed 100 strikes for each trial: Code: UnparriedParry Misses Hits Parries----- ------ ----- ------- 0 78 22 0 (obviously) 10 87 10 3 The trial with Parry, I was hit almost half as often as the first trial, even accounting for the parried hits. So, if this data is accurate, we can see that: - Parry reduces the number of times you get a damage message - Parry reduces the average TOTAL damage taken per hit, before blocking - Parry reduces the average percent of TOTAL damage taken per hit reported as blocked - Parry *increases* the average ACTUAL damage taken per hit The simplest explanation seems to me to be as follows: - If damaged from a hit is reduced to zero, it is reported as a miss, not as a hit. - Parry does reduce damage. At least one thing is very unsatisfactory for this explanation, which is the absence of 1, 2, and 3 actual damage reports, which we would expect plenty of if nearly half the hits were reduced to zero damage. What does anybody else think?

I tested it repeatedly, empirically, and it offers very clear damage reduction to both physical and magical damage. If you are wearing lots of armor and the goblin warriors are very weak, so you are already taking very low damage, the output might look different -- Jeff (and other game-makers) often have slightly different math for liminal damage. That's the only thing I can think of. Otherwise, given that empirical evidence has been given for Parry's effectiveness, the fact that you didn't "notice" a "significant" reduction isn't significant. Write down some actual numbers, try the test in multiple circumstances, and then I'll be interested to hear your results.

The real issue is the graphics. As mentioned in the past, apparently those Poser models take a very long time to create and properly render. For that reason, it seems pretty likely that the new image we saw was for the new, 9th class -- which it looked fitting for anyway.

per level of: Strength / Blademaster / Melee Weapons Strength / Blademaster / Pole Weapons Dexterity / Sharpshooter / Archery Dexterity / Sharpshooter / Thrown Weapons depending on the type of weapon.

First of all, Parry absolutely does offer damage reduction in addition to blocking attacks. It's about 2% per point on top of what shows up on the character sheet. Note that this does reduce damage from area of effect attacks, as well. 5 or 10 Parry won't make or break anything, but taking both reduction and blocking into account, it's way more significant than the Slith resistance bonus, or than the magical efficiency from Pure Spirit. From the middle of the game on, a high Blademaster level will increase your damage WAY more than an extra 6 points in Mage or Priest spells will. With both DT and EW and an item or two you'll be in the 15-20 range by the end, which will DOUBLE your fatigue reduction almost every time. The fatigue reduction items are nice, but very unreliable; high Blademaster is very reliable. Losing 2 fatigue per turn means that you can have Battle Fury permanently active, for a far higher (and more convenient) bonus than just an extra 6 levels of damage. Throw some of the items in and you can typically combine Battle Fury with other disciplines, resulting in truly gross bonuses to damage output. NM/PS juts can't keep up.

No. That doesn't happen. "Diminishing returns" refers to the fact that the same 5% or 1-4 (or whatever) bonus you get from a given skill is less valuable the more of it you have. I can never remember which skills have the 10-cap in which games -- it varies oddly -- but the effect is never split or shaved down, just spaced out. However, you are forgetting that the default to-hit % is not zero. I think it's 50 for most physical attacks. So that 55% is not your "overall % to hit." It is your BONUS to hit. Hit chance = base hit chance + bonus to hit - enemy bonus to dodge In this case 54% = 50% + 55% - ? This suggests that the goblin has a 51% dodge rating, probably achieved from 9 Dex (assigned via level and difficulty) and maybe 3 Luck -- I think goblins might actually have luck assigned to them.

You should never, ever allow yourself to be encumbered. It reduces to-hit rate, turn order, and AP drastically, and makes you extra vulnerable to slowing and stunning.

The default accuracy level, if all your stats and your enemy's stats are zero, is 50%, I believe. Oh -- I forgot about Luck. Luck gives you +2% per point both to hit and to dodge. Do you have 2 points of Luck, Ghaldring? That plus a 2 Dex goblin would get you your result. The in-game descriptions, BTW, are notoriously AWFUL. That is to say, many of them are accurate, but some of them aren't, and all of them are vague. They are not reliable -- do not rely on them!

You didn't list Strength. Strength : Dexterity :: Swords : Bows. Also you didn't list base weapon bonuses (which = the min damage listed for the damage range in the weapon info box). Add up Sword Bonus + Str + Melee Weapons + Blademaster and Bow Bonus + Dex + Bow Skill + Sharpshooter If the Radiant Blade has a listed +10% to hit effect, then add +2 to the sword listing. Now multiply each by 5%; that's the bonus to-hit you'll get with each. I'm guessing the sword has a higher bonus, and you also pumped strength up a few points. You obviously don't have Divinely Touched, which would give you an extra 20% at that level. Getting a few levels of bow skill (presumably you haven't spent skill points on any, since you have 4 for race plus 3 that you could have paid cash for) would get you another 10-20%. And why would you ever not be blessed?

So here's a question Jeff has hinted at, but nobody has asked. This is a good one for you Random. How balanced are the creations this time, particularly the battle creations?