I've so far spent over two hours (two boring hours) following this guy around, and nothing happens. I tried going back to Eye What's-Her-Name in the castle to tell her nothing happens, but there is no new dialogue. I checked posts about this quest in this forum, read the FAQ, followed the instructions, re-read the FAQ, tried again. I tried staking out all three of Orian's campsites. I let him enter and stop three, four, five times...nothing happens. I follow him from one campsite to the next. Nothing happens. I talk to him, then try again. Nothing happens. He never does anything suspicious.
I would appreciate it if someone could give me utterly precise, unmistakably exact instructions.
I was rather enjoying the game, but if I can't get this to work I'm going to quit. It's too annoying to keep flailing away, and even more annoying to skip it.
Thanks for your indulgence.