TRAITORS IN ALMARIA: A One Night Hunt

[BainIhrno]

It would seem like a risky move for two imperials to throw mud at each other, especially if all the Avernites vote for the same person. Obviously, sounding like best buds would be a giveaway too, but I'd wonder about a strategy where they cast so much doubt on each other

[Callie]

My impression now is this:

 

Nalyd - Refugee

BainIhrno - Empire Bureaucrat

Excalibur - Refugee, once the Geas Toucher

Sarachim: Empire Cultist

Goldengirl - Highly Alert Citizen

Tridash - Disciple of Sixus

Sylae - Geas Toucher, momentarily Refugee, originally Apprentice Mage

Triumph - Empire Infiltrator

Iffy - Disciple of Sixus

 

It doesn't seem like there is a Skribbane Addict because nobody is acting that way; however, I am a little suspicious of Tridash. Iffy and Goldengirl have mostly been silent. It's possible that Goldengirl is a Priest, but she hasn't claimed an unused role.

 

I suppose it's possible that one of Tridash/Iffy/Goldengirl is an Empire spy, or that Sarachim/BainIhrno are not. The only person who is certainly an Empire spy is Triumph, so I would encourage everyone to cast votes for him.

[Sudanna]

Sara and Excalibur both voting for Triumph, you say.

[Xaiya]

Tridash is who he says he is. Right now, the most suspicious to me seem to be Triumph or Excalibur/Sylae. Sarachim was rather quick to point fingers, and has been a tad aggressive, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything unless there was some inconsistency that I didn't spot.

[tridash]

In case I didn't explicitly say it earlier, I can confirm Iffy actually is the other Disciple.

 

Excalibur and Sarachim have been suspicious with some of their claims, and Triumph perhaps seems to have talked too much.

[Sudanna]

I am provisionally casting my vote for SARACHIM.

[Triumph]

For our mutual benefit, as we ponder this weighty matter, I've tried to compile a list of what roles everyone has claimed thus far (hopefully I'm not leaving something out?):

 

Sarachim: Refugee

 

Nalyd: Refugee

 

Bain: Refugee

 

Sylae: Apprentice Mage; Excalibur claims Sylae must have become a previously unused Refugee role via Empire Cultist, and then was made Geas Toucher via Excalibur

 

Excalibur: started Geas Toucher, to Refugee via Sylae (Triumph agrees Excalibur started as Geas Toucher)

 

Triumph: Apprentice Mage

 

Tridash: Disciple of Sixus (Iffy agrees)

 

Iffy: Disciple of Sixus (Tridash agrees)

 

Goldengirl: has never claimed a role (unless I've overlooked a post somewhere?)

 

 

FWIW, currently the people I'm most inclined to trust, based on all behavior and stories so far, are Tridash, Iffy, and Nalyd. Not that that's saying much.

[Sudanna]

Sylae has not actually claimed to have had her role changed - she would have no way of knowing that - only Excalibur says that that happened.

[Triumph]

Good point; I've edited the list to clarify the difference between Sylae's claim and Excalibur's. I've also added notes where someone claimed to have confirmed another's identity.

[keira]

I've only claimed that I am apprentice mage (your word vs mine), and that nalyd is refugee (confirmed by nalyd). I'm not claiming to be part of the shapeshifter scheme (how would I know).

 

I will be voting for TRIUMPH in the next phase, and encourage everyone else to do the same.

Edited February 21, 2015 by sylae
Sniped

[Sudanna]

Three of the most suspicious people in the game voting together now. . . Fellow Avernites, I urge you to not vote for Triumph, and we need to be a united voting bloc to prevent that. I personally find Sarachim the most suspicious at the moment, but if there's a greater consensus for Excalibur or Sylae, I will join it.

[Luca]

Tridash: Disciple of Sixus (Iffy agrees)

 

Iffy: Disciple of Sixus (Tridash agrees)

 

I feel like this is, traditionally, not how credibility works.

[Callie]

It is totally possible for there to be only one Disciple of Sixus.

[Quiconque]

1) Just to reiterate, voting will be done 100% by PM; while you're certainly welcome to announce intended votes here, keep in mind that nobody is bound to vote the same way they are saying they will here.

 

Voting will begin at 5pm tomorrow. I will accept votes by PM only, and only those submitted after 5pm. No announcement here as I will likely be in the middle of a game of Terra Mystica then.

 

2) "STOP POSTING THIS IS FOR PLAYERS OMG" (by popular request)... but only because I am now being cursed at off-site for trying to make sure the game's integrity holds up. If you're not a player, please don't post anything that could possibly influence the game process here.

[Luca]

2) "STOP POSTING THIS IS FOR PLAYERS OMG"

That's...literally a direct quote from Sy poking fun at you for doing bizarre and draconian things due to conspiracy theories...You know. Satire?

(22:23:42) sylae: (I actually like the neb commentary in the thread. I'm surprised you haven't been slatted yet for it though)

(22:23:57) Neb: Slatted?

(22:24:18) sylae: STOP POSTING THIS IS FOR PLAYERS OMG

(22:24:24) sylae: or something

(22:24:42) sylae: Although it never says you can't

 

Anyway, whether I post my ten words highlighting an amusing credibility flaw here or at CalRef (where five out of nine of the players are and discuss this game anyway) makes no difference to me. But it's worth pointing out the impromptu shock reaction.

[Quiconque]

Neb, the reason I asked in the first place is that Sylae had previously brought up concerns to me about the fact that she and Iffy might need to keep things secret despite living together. Since you also live with those 2 players, when you started posting about game-relevant stuff here, it seemed reasonable to check on. You chose to respond by cursing at me. Please don't derail things further. Thanks.

[tridash]

It would be very risky for two players to claim to be Disciples of Sixus if they are not: if there are two real Disciples of Sixus then they are both able to contradict this. If there is one real Disciple then they are able to contradict this. If there are no real Disciples there is likely to be a Priest who will know this at least half of the time.

 

 

Here are some scenarios, sorry for repeating stuff - I haven't really taken into account the effects of the cultist's power switches. Remember the cultist's powers only work on non-Empire Spies though.

 

Assuming the Triumph is telling the truth and Sylae was not initially the Skribbane Addict (Sylae being the Skribbane Addict seems very unlikely), then it'd be :

 

Nalyd - ???

BainIhrno - ???

Excalibur - LYING, once the Geas Toucher

Sarachim - ???

Goldengirl - ???

Tridash - Disciple of Sixus

Sylae - LYING

Triumph - Apprentice Mage

Iffy - Disciple of Sixus

 

At least one of Nalyd, BainIhrno and Sarachim would also be lying.

 

===

 

If Triumph is not telling the truth and Sylae is telling the truth, it would be:

 

Nalyd - Refugee

BainIhrno - ???

Excalibur - ???, possibly once the Geas Toucher

Sarachim - ???

Goldengirl - ???

 

Tridash - Disciple of Sixus

Sylae - Apprentice Mage

Triumph - LYING

Iffy - Disciple of Sixus

 

At least two of BainIhrno, Sarachim and Excalibur would also be lying.

 

===

 

If both Triumph and Sylae are lying ( ) it would be:

 

Nalyd - ???

BainIhrno - ???

Excalibur - ???, possibly once the Geas Toucher

Sarachim - ???

Goldengirl - ???

 

Tridash - Disciple of Sixus

Sylae - LYING

Triumph - LYING

Iffy - Disciple of Sixus

 

At least two of Nalyd, BainIhrno, Sarachim and Excalibur would also be lying.

[Sarachim]

Nalyd, I'm curious why you're voting for me. I'd like to be able to defend myself, but "seems most suspicious" isn't much to go on.

[Xaiya]

I'm not really sure of Sarachim either way. All he's done is be rather aggressive. We have more info on Triumph and Excalibur. I will reluctantly cast my vote on Triumph.

[tridash]

I also must cast my vote on Triumph.

[Sudanna]

Sarachim stated his voting intentions first, for the person with the least suspicious claims and the most forthright attitude, and was then immediately followed by two also-suspicious and far cagier others he was supposedly clashing with. Now, what does that look like but the end of a ploy for the spies to seem unassociated with each other, and then have several of the most active members in the thread converge on a scapegoat, leading both those who did and did not believe in the Empire's story to vote for an innocent.

 

I am unsure whether or not Sarachim is a spy, I admit - but then, none of us are sure of anything but the spies. As I've said: we need a united vote among the Avernites, and it has to be for Sarachim, Excalibur, or Sylae.

[Triumph]

FWIW, I'm voting for Sylae. I would readily change that vote to Sarachim or Excalibur if other Avernites want to rally around one of them. At this point though, it looks like the Empire has won this round, since (unless I'm miscounting) a majority of this caravan have proclaimed their intention to vote for me.

[Sudanna]

I will also be voting for Sylae, then.

[Quiconque]

The conversation appears to have died down, but I'm still waiting for votes from four players. I know some people may be waiting just in case... but just in case that's not the case, let me reiterate, again, that if you have stated a vote in this thread it does not mean you have cast a vote.

[tridash]

I find Excalibur most suspicious now but am currently voting for Sylae.

[keira]

[Quiconque]

"... eh... eh... ahwhat? Hey!" Rone suddenly straightens up and looks around the camp where you and the other caravan members have been questioning each other. "That's enough of that," he says. "Tell me who you judge to be a..." He nearly nods off again, but catches himself. "A spy! Now, who is it?"

 

One by one, Rone pulls you each aside and asks you who is most suspicious. He listens to the answers, then calls everyone together.

 

"Okay, folks, I'm ready to scry. I also have a Kill spell ready in case anyway splits camp when I announce the vic... er, the scrying target. So don't try anything. I will be scrying... zzzzzzz..." Before you can kick him, a couple of rocks knock him in the head. They look like they came from the Almarian guard tower.

 

"Yes, our lucky winner is... Sylae! Step right up, Sylae. Let's see what's in your head."

Sylae doesn't run away. She does protest, quietly and with dignity. Rone continues to keep his finger of death pointed straight at Sylae. Eventually, Sylae submits. Rone holds Sylae's head between his bony fingers and concentrates. Smoke starts to come out of Sylae's ears. First she frowns. Then she smiles. Then she starts to writhe and giggle uncontrollably, as if she's being tickled.

 

After about an hour of this, Sylae slumps to the floor. Rone rises up, taller than he's stood the entire time. The air crackles around his head, and there's a gleam in his eye.

 

"YOU NINCOMPOOPS!" He bellows. "There's nothing in there but ponies!" He stoops down and picks up Sylae's body. You keep worrying that his gaunt arms are going fall off under the weight, but somehow, they don't. "She's not a spy, so she's coming into the city with me. Guards! Don't let the rest of them in. We don't know who they are!" Then leaves, and the gate slams shut behind him.

 

The rest of you eye each other suspiciously. You consider whether to march back to the Merchant Oasis in the east. Nothing seems safe, and whoever the spies are amongst you still don't want to reveal themselves.

 

You don't have long to wait. Cries of battle soon erupt from the north walls of the city. They don't last very long, though, and Almaria seems to be fine. That's when you notice the thick plumes of smoke coming from the riverside to the southwest of the city.

 

The attack on Almaria was a decoy. The Empire struck with guerilla tactics, wiping out the less defended farms and settlements in that little corner of the Great Cave. It wasn't a great tactical loss for Avernum, and it was no Cotra -- but it was scary. The blow to the morale of all those in the Great Cave -- three cities, three forts, the Castle, the Tower, and countless farmers -- will be tough to weather.

 

Goldengirl and Excalibur have won. Congratulations, and thanks for playing, everyone!

 

 

VOTES

Nalyd: Sylae

BainIhrno: Triumph

Excalibur: Triumph

Sarachim: Abstain

Goldengirl: No vote*

Tridash: Sylae

Sylae: Triumph

Triumph: Sylae

Iffy: Sylae

 

ORIGINAL ROLES

Nalyd: Refugee

BainIhrno: Refugee

Excalibur: Geas Toucher

Sarachim: Skribbane Addict

Goldengirl: Empire Cultist

Tridash: Disciple of Sixus

Sylae: Empire Infiltrator

Triumph: Apprentice Mage

Iffy: Disciple of Sixus

UNUSED: Empire Bureaucrat, Priest, Highly Alert Citizen

 

CARAVAN TRIP ACTIONS

Nalyd: Spied on by Sylae (Empire Infiltrator)

BainIhrno: Turned into Priest by Goldengirl (Empire Cultist)

Excalibur: Spied on by Triumph (Apprentice Mage); then quietly swapped roles with Sylae (Empire Infiltrator)

Sarachim: --

Goldengirl: Targeted BainIhrno

Tridash: --

Sylae: Learned there was nothing to find out about Nalyd; then had her role swapped with Excalibur (Geas Toucher)

Triumph: Learned Excalibur was the Geas Toucher

Iffy: --

 

*Goldengirl attempted to submit a vote for Triumph a day ahead of time, with no explanation. I debated whether or not to accept it when I never heard from her during the voting period, but ultimately decided it would be more fair to stick with the 24 hour voting window that everyone else had to deal with. Also note that, although her vote would have caused a tie between Triumph and Sylae, even if Triumph had won the result would have been the same.

 

 

Observations:

1. Goldengirl posted less text, and less period, than anyone else... and yet no one ever suspected her or even asked her questions, at least not publicly. I think this was the single biggest weakness of the Loyal Avernites. Possibly this is just a weak point of the format, though. I have some thoughts about that for next time (see below).

 

2. Triumph posted so much and so verbosely, especially early on, that I did not find him to be credible as a spy. I'm curious as to why Excalibur picked him to pin suspicion on, and why others found it a credible claim.

 

3. It was an interesting choice for Triumph to reveal the result of his information-gathering power right off the bat. I'm not sure how that affected things.

 

4. Seriously, Excalibur was SO blatant about glossing over other possibilities when he was exhorting everyone to vote for Triumph that it just screamed "covert agenda!" Plus, if you believed he had been the Geas Toucher, then you knew there was a 40% chance (4/10 other roles) that he wouldn't end up remaining on the Loyal Avernite side.

 

5. Excalibur's story required an unused Refugee role, which meant that at least TWO out of Sarachim, Nalyd, and BainIhrno were lying, as they all claimed to be Refugees. However, no one ever really raised suspicions about any of those three. (And let's not even get into the amusingly unlikely Cultist/Geas convergence required for this to work; with the starting knowledge of any non-Geas Toucher regular Avernite in the game, the odds of having both roles in the game and having them target the same person are just under 1 in 24.)

 

6. Given all this, Excalibur looked pretty suspicious. Since there would be no reason for a regular Avernite with any other role, or a Geas Toucher who remained an Avernite, to make all of this up, that strongly suggested that either he was a Spy, or an Addict. (Given Triumph's assertion, most likely that he became one of them.) Personally I think I'd have suspected him of becoming the Skribbane Addict, and not voted for him accordingly. (Plus, if Excalibur HAD become the Skribbane Addict, that would also have explained (to the info-poor Loyal Av perspective) why Sylae chose to tell a story that conflicted with Triumph's fairly credible story).

 

7. Ironically, the one post that seemed concerned with Excalibur's glossing over of less unlikely possibilities was made by Sarachim... the Skribbane Addict. The Addict is a very hard role to pull off, and once it became clear that the only thing receiving public attention was the Triumph/Excalibur drama, there probably wasn't much to do about it.

 

8. Sylae was also in a difficult spot. As an original Spy, Sylae knew that neither Excalibur nor Triumph started out as Empire Spies. And there's only one Skribbane Addict. Excalibur could not then be the Addict because that would mean that Triumph was a Loyal Avernite who was lying for no reason. But Sylae also knew that Excalibur was definitely lying, since Sylae was not a Refugee and the Empire Cultist could not have targeted Sylae -- she was a Spy, remember? The only possible scenario where all of these observations make sense -- that Excalibur did not start out as an Addict or Spy, but was lying -- would be where Excalibur was the Geas Toucher and stole either Sylae's or Goldengirl's role, or the Addict's role. And given that Excalibur shared his claims about Sylae's role before she had even claimed a role, that would have been a risky choice had he in fact stolen Goldengirl's (or the unknown Addict's) role. So Sylae might have concluded she was now an Avernite after all, shared all the reasoning, and revealed Excalibur and Goldengirl as spies. Of course, if the reasoning turned out to be wrong, Sylae was possibly sabotaging what would otherwise be an easy victory as an Empire Spy... and revealing all that was no guarantee that people would believe it.

 

 

Thoughts for Next Time

What did everyone think about the timing? 24 hours for targeting and 24 hours for voting was definitely unnecessary. 48 for discussion was probably needed, but only given the long gaps between when people talking to each other were on.

 

I'm thinking about doing this is a single-evening event... either as a 3 hour thing on the boards, where everyone is expected to be around and posting during that time; or a slightly more real time format on AIM, where the whole thing could take place in less than an hour.

 

I'm guessing there will be comments about the role-switchers, too. It seems that the Geas Toucher added quite a lot to the game, but the Empire Cultist was not so great, since there was no way for ANYONE to have any real information on what it did. That role should probably be modifed or removed.

 

What else? What worked or didn't work? Feedback time!

[Callie]

I had the early misfortune of being identified by the Apprentice Mage, so I decided to just admit that I was the Geas Toucher. I then told Triumph and Sarachim in private that I switched with Sylae; I don't think that was a very good idea! Since I had blundered early on, I formulated a gambit to convince people that I was the Skribbane Addict. I don't know if that worked or not. I am surprised that nobody voted for me.

 

I genuinely thought Sarachim was a fellow Empire spy. I had no idea that Goldengirl was a spy, but then again, she only made a single post in the thread.

 

I actually liked the format for this game. I would not be interested in playing over AIM.

[Xaiya]

So, I was right to tell people not to vote for Sarachim. I was also right to, at the last minute, switch my primary suspicion from Triumph to Sylae and Excalibur, but I opted to vote for Sylae because of the possibility that Excalibur switched with the addict. I thought that very likely due to how insanely suspicious I realized Excalibur was being. Ironically, I was right about suspecting the two, but I voted for the wrong one. The role swapping thing is quite a twist.

 

I thought the timing was alright. Perhaps have a smaller time frame for targeting, but also announce in advance of when it's going to start so people can be ready.

[Dikiyoba]

Ha, Dikiyoba thought Goldengirl might turn out to be an Empire agent. It was a bit of a stretch, but Dikiyoba remembers her being very quiet when she was a traitor in one of the long-ago witch hunt games.

[Triumph]

Interesting.

 

I actually did mention suspicions of Goldengirl in a PM to some people, based solely on the complete lack of posting, but too many other people were acting blatantly suspiciously for me to pursue the matter. I should have recognized this as more of a tell.

 

Sarachim actually did a good job of drawing suspicion to himself (needed as the Skribbaner). His belligerence from almost his first post definitely set himself up as fishy without directly giving anything away. Nice work muddying the waters. Between him and Sylae and Excalibur all calling for my head, I really had no idea who was "most suspicious."

 

Excalibur definitely grew increasingly suspicious, but the big thing I overlooked was that he might not have been lying about using his ability on Sylae. I knew Sylae was lying, and while Excalibur was also really fishy, I tried to "play it safe" with the person I was more sure was lying. Excalibur, I actually think you made very clever use of a dollop of truth (the truth of using your ability on Sylae and noting that Sylae was now an Avernite) to bolster your deception. I mean, once I start to suspect Excalibur of being a liar (and having become either an Imperial or the Skribbaner), I assume that among his various lies, he would have lied about using his ability on Sylae. Which meant I presumed the obviously-lying Sylae was still Imperial.

 

To be fair, Sylae continued to ACT like an Imperial, so it's not as if we totally misread the signs there. But we didn't give enough consideration Excalibur's role, and should have thought more about GG.

 

I think I prefer the game on the forum to AIM. Tightening up the timeline is probably fine, but I like the way the forum facilitates a little more slower, thoughtful pace than instant messaging does.

 

Oh, and yeah, in hindsight, I wonder if I should have refrained from revealing the result of my ability so quickly. Had Excalibur been forced to publicly spin a story before I revealed that I knew his original role, he might have slipped up in some way that would have given me more of a clue.

[Lilith]

Having seen how things turned out this time around, I find myself unconvinced that being able to be role-switched to a role with different victory conditions without knowing it is good for the game.

[keira]

I had to take a difficult decision. Did excalibur really switch roles with me, or was he lying? If I could have had more faith I was a different role, things could have gone very differently. It woulda been really easy to throw empire under the bus.

 

However, I didn't have enough to go off of, I knew he was up to know good but I was thinking more along the lines of him being an addict. As I could not be sure what my role was I could not really do anything useful. I just had to assume I was still my original role and hope for the best.

 

I didn't really care for this, it pretty much means, for a spy, that if I believe I've been targeted my hands are tied. Perhaps if a transmogrified person knew they were switched, but not who did it or what they are now?

 

Also, sorry Triumph for going after you. I had to choose a similar role to mine to "steal".

[Triumph]

Lilith and Sylae have good points. I can't imagine it's fun to have to play the game with no idea what one's goal is.

[Quiconque]

Perhaps if a transmogrified person knew they were switched, but not who did it or what they are now?

Hmm, that's an interesting idea that might work well..

[ĐªгŦĦ Єяŋϊε]

After watching this game, I think that I would play a future game on the same lines

[Sarachim]

Having seen how things turned out this time around, I find myself unconvinced that being able to be role-switched to a role with different victory conditions without knowing it is good for the game.

This. It's impossible to make meaningful strategic choices when you don't know your own victory conditions. It's as if you had a chess variant where, after the game proper ends, you roll a die and reverse the result on a 6. It's absolutely necessary that everyone know what faction they're in at all times.

[Goldengirl]

Goldengirl posted less text, and less period, than anyone else... and yet no one ever suspected her or even asked her questions, at least not publicly. I think this was the single biggest weakness of the Loyal Avernites. Possibly this is just a weak point of the format, though. I have some thoughts about that for next time.

 

Although I wasn't lying when I said I was quite busy during this time, my plan (as Sylae can verify) actually was to play silent and let everyone freak out over who else to target. It worked, so that's good. Forgetting to submit my vote at the proper time... that was embarrassing. Alas.

[BJ Back From the Beyond]

Count me as interested for future games.

[Quiconque]

This. It's impossible to make meaningful strategic choices when you don't know your own victory conditions. It's as if you had a chess variant where, after the game proper ends, you roll a die and reverse the result on a 6. It's absolutely necessary that everyone know what faction they're in at all times.

I see where you're coming from, but I think your conclusion doesn't fit. The problem is that One Night Werewolf has a very different game space than chess does. Chess is a game of perfect information. Nothing is ever hidden from a player. One Night Werewolf is a game of imperfect information. Lots of stuff is hidden. Loyal Avernites will never be able to cast a vote, knowing for sure that they are advancing their goal.

 

I do agree that if you have no idea what your goal is, that's a problem. The Empire Cultist ability was kind of stupid, as far as that goes. The Geas Toucher also has the potential to create that situation, though it didn't here. With the available information, it was possible to attempt to deduce what happened with the Geas Toucher, in exactly the same way that players attempt to deduce who they should vote for. That said, it was somewhat lucky that that was the case here, as it basically hinged on the Apprentice Mage spying on the Geas Toucher. Therefore, I agree that the Geas Toucher needs modifications along the lines of what you suggest. Where I disagree is with the extreme statements "absolutely necessary" and "at all times". I think that no one should ever be clueless, and clues should be better and more guaranteed than what was available this time. I don't think it needs to be 100% certain for everyone always.

 

One modification I'm thinking through at the moment is to add an extra night effect that always accompanies role changes: a unique tingling sensation (or equivalent) that is different depending on which faction your role is switching into. The catch is that there will also be 1 or 2 roles that can manufacture a tingling sensation. I'm still thinking it through, but I think that might allow for some of the intrigue of interacting abilities, needing to work out what really happened and who's telling the truth, without leaving anyone ultimately in the dark about what their goal is.