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TRAITORS IN ALMARIA: A One Night Hunt


Depth of Thwart
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Well, technically, there could be zero Refugees and all four of you are liars. :p

 

LOL.

Edited by Triumph
But at a minimum, we have *at least* two liars among Excalibur, Sarachim, Bain, and Nalyd. Maybe more than two are lying, but at least two are definitely lying.
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Hmm. So, come to think of it, even if Triumph's telling the truth Excalibur could have swapped roles with an Imperial. I think Excalibur had better tell us who he swapped with and what new role he got, so the other player involved can corroborate this.

Still waiting, Excalibur. You're quick enough to answer this question in private, so I wonder why you're more hesitant when the player you're talking about can see you.
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Clarification about a question I was just asked:

 

The Empire Cultist (if existant) ability goes before the Geas Toucher (if existant) ability. If the EC targets the GT, the GT ability still goes off, but it swaps the former GT's current role, with their target's role.

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I targeted Sylae and I am definitely a refugee. This means that there is an Empire Cultist who targeted Sylae and turned her into a refugee. Triumph somehow knew my role, which means he's the Empire Infiltrator, or should I say, InfilTRAITOR.

 

Case solved. :cool:

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...wait, what??? Let me plot this out...

 

You're saying you believe Sylae was the AP and scried Nalyd who you must believe was a Refugee, but then Sylae got turned into a previously unused Refugee role by the Empire Cultist, and then you got Sylae's newly transmogrified Refugee status?

 

That...actually seems to fit together plausibly (assuming I'm not missing something?). And if it were all true, it would mean that the only way I could have found out you had been the Geas Toucher were if I were the Empire Infiltrator.

 

 

 

*Except* for that stubborn little fact that I'm the Apprentice Mage. May I ask why you believe Sylae is telling the truth rather than me?

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I'm with Triumph. That's a pretty convoluted sequence of events that Excalibur presented. It's plausible, yes, but the fact that this series of improbabilities is the most plausible way to explain his origin role claim suggests that the claim was probably a lie, and new information has eroded it.

 

Triumph and/or Excalibur are Imperials, and they're either in cahoots or at least one's a lucky guesser.

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I'm with Triumph. That's a pretty convoluted sequence of events that Excalibur presented. It's plausible, yes, but the fact that this series of improbabilities is the most plausible way to explain his origin role claim suggests that the claim was probably a lie, and new information has eroded it.

 

Triumph and/or Excalibur are Imperials, and they're either in cahoots or at least one's a lucky guesser.

 

You start out saying you're "with" me, and then you end by saying I'm an Imperial. Are you confessing? ;) LOL.

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You start out saying you're "with" me, and then you end by saying I'm an Imperial. Are you confessing? ;) LOL.

Let me rephrase. The combinations that result from taking everyone at their word are impossible (no big surprise). The combinations that result from assuming you (Triumph) are lying are plausible, but just barely. Some major participant in the drama thus far has created an elaborate scenario which we're buying into and dissecting, when the simpler truth is that they're just lying. So that *could* be you, but it's probably Excalibur.

 

Or both of you. Still not ruling that out, though it looks less likely.

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Things are starting to come together now:

 

Triumph is the Empire Infiltrator

Sarachim is a fellow Empire Spy, probably a Cultist

Sylae is now the Geas Toucher, but once an Apprentice Mage

Nalyd is a Refugee

I am now a Refugee, once the Geas Toucher

 

Accordingly, BainIhrno and tridash are lying about their identities. This probably means that we have three Empire spies and a Skribbane Addict. :o

 

Meanwhile, Iffy and Goldengirl haven't made any responses, but by process of elimination, they're fellow Avernites. Because there are three Empire spies, that means we really have to organize and overcome their three-vote block and at the same time, avoid voting for the Skribbane Addict.

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You're trying to gloss over the huge uncertainties remaining by making orderly lists that present an illusion of certainty. Your attempt to make us think we know more than we really do is classic Imperial behavior. At any rate you've got at least one important mistake, because I'm a Refugee.

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Howdy.

 

I really should have been devoting more time to this, which I'll correct for in the next few days. I'm confused, but there is one thing I want to question. Are we certain that there are three actual Imperial spies? With the (relatively) small number of people playing, it may just be two. I doubt it'd be one, just based on ratios, but it is an outside possibility.

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The sum total of things of which I am certain:

 

1. I'm the Apprentice Mage.

 

2. Excalibur was previously the Geas Toucher.

 

3. Someone else is now the Geas Toucher (corollary of 2).

 

4. Sylae is lying about being the Apprentice Mage (corollary of 1).

 

Believe or not, all four of those propositions are true.

 

Unfortunately, I am completely at sea as to how to reconcile the tangled mess of claims people are making with those truths. Way too many people are claiming to be Refugees, for one. For another, IF Excalibur truly used his ability on Sylae, Sylae would be a the Geas Toucher now and would have no reason to lie about formerly being the Apprentice Mage (unless Sylae doesn't believe Excalibur used his ability and is continuing to act according to an earlier role?). But Sylae is lying. Does that mean Excalibur is lying about who he used his ability on or what ability he got from Sylae? And if he's lying about that, who is Excalibur now? Sylae, lying about being Apprentice Mage, vouches for Nalyd. Does that imply Sylae and Nalyd are in cahoots?

 

So confused.

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I'm with Triumph. That's a pretty convoluted sequence of events that Excalibur presented. It's plausible, yes, but the fact that this series of improbabilities is the most plausible way to explain his origin role claim suggests that the claim was probably a lie, and new information has eroded it.

 

Triumph and/or Excalibur are Imperials, and they're either in cahoots or at least one's a lucky guesser.

 

I don't see why it's any more implausible than any other sequence of events. Every role has to (or, at least, probably did) target somebody, mostly at random(except for the spies, who probably had a plan). It's no less plausible that they happened to target the same person than any other sequence of events.

 

You're trying to gloss over the huge uncertainties remaining by making orderly lists that present an illusion of certainty. Your attempt to make us think we know more than we really do is classic Imperial behavior. At any rate you've got at least one important mistake, because I'm a Refugee.

 

There aren't really any uncertainties in the scenario Excalibur and Sylae have presented. It's just a question of whether to believe them. The only thing I know is that I started as a Refugee.

 

Let's make a list of the claims so far:

NALYD says that NALYD began as a Refugee. This is, of course, the only reliable claim.

BAINIHRNO says that BAINIHRNO began as a Refugee.

TRIUMPH says that TRIUMPH began as the Apprentice Mage.

TRIUMPH says that EXCALIBUR began as the Geas Toucher.

SYLAE says that SYLAE began as the Apprentice Mage.

SYLAE says that NALYD began as a Refugee. This is true.

EXCALIBUR says that EXCALIBUR began as the Geas Toucher.

EXCALIBUR says that SYLAE was targeted by the Empire Cultist to become a Refugee.

EXCALIBUR says that EXCALIBUR targeted Sylae, and is now a Refugee.

 

It seems very likely that Excalibur started as the Geas Toucher - both he and Triumph say this, and both are casting suspicion onto each other. HOWEVER, Excalibur may have switched to an Empire Spy role, or the Skribbane Addict. If he became an Empire spy, it is possible he is collaborating with Sylae, another spy, perhaps an Infiltrator, to create his story.

 

IF Excalibur is the Geas Toucher and is not lying about who he switched with and what his new role is, the scenario is this:

 

The roles assigned by Slarty were:

 

Nalyd (Coppereye): Refugee

BainIhrno: unknown, not a refugee

Excalibur: Geas Toucher

Sarachim: Empire Cultist

Goldengirl: unknown, not a refugee

Tridash: unknown, not a refugee

Sylae: Apprentice Mage

Triumph: Empire Infiltrator

Iffy:unknown, not a refugee

 

Sylae targets Nalyd, revealing that Nalyd is a Refugee

Triumph targets Excalibur, revealing that Excalbiur is the Geas Toucher

Sarachim targets Sylae, changing her into the unused Refugee role

Excalibur targets Sylae, switching their roles

 

However, Sarachim claims to be a Refugee. BainIhrno claims to be a refugee. Triumph claims to be the Apprentice Mage.

 

EITHER all three of them are Empire Spies/the Skribbane Addict, OR Sylae and Excalibur are lying.

EITHER at least one of Sarachim and BainIhrno are SURELY lying(as there can be at most two refugees), OR one of them is actually the Geas Toucher and switched with the other or myself. Neither of them would have any reason to hide that, if it were the case, so one of them is SURELY an Empire Spy or a Skribbane Addict. And either they both are enemies of Avernum, or Excalibur certainly is and Sylae perhaps is.

 

That means that the starting roles would have to look something like this, for Excalibur's scenario to be true:

Nalyd (Coppereye): Refugee

BainIhrno: Empire Cultist or Skribbane Addict

Excalibur: Geas Toucher

Sarachim: Empire Cultist or Skribbane addict

Goldengirl: unknown, not a refugee

Tridash: unknown, not a refugee

Sylae: Apprentice Mage

Triumph: Empire Infiltrator

Iffy: unknown, not a refugee

 

Personally, I do not at this time believe Excalibur's scenario, and most suspect Excalibur of currently being an Enemy of Avernum, though whether that means Empire Spy or Skribbane Addict is somewhat unclear.

 

There are still a lot of people who still haven't said anything about their roles. If they could please come forward with that identification - after all, there is no player elimination and no risk from Loyal Avernites revealing their true role - and share any information they may have gathered, it would help greatly. ALSO, I suspect very much that we have a FORMER Empire Spy around - Excalibur may have swtiched roles, meaning you are now a Loyal Avernite. If you believe you may be that former spy - if the actions and claims of your former fellows seem suspicious to you - please reveal your former allegiance.

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Both Triumph and Sylae claim to be the apprentice mage, and they both believe Excalibur to be the geass toucher. Excalibur is claiming to be such, and he seems to support Sy, who also supports Nalyd.

 

Triumph is unlikely to be the scribbane addict trying to draw attention unless he got a really lucky guess. Or, perhaps, he lied and was wrong after all, and Excalibur, Nalyd, and Sylae are all rolling with this lie being empire spies who are teaming up to throw suspicion on him. I really doubt this, though, considering an Avernite would have no reason to lie to this extreme, and no one wants to pin suspicion on the scribbane addict.

 

Sylae and Excalibur could be telling the truth, and Triumph is indeed the empire spy.

 

Or, perhaps, Triumph is really the mage, and then Excalibur switched with an empire spy and is now working with them, lying about sylae, since if he did switch with her, sylae would then be an avernite, and wouldn't have ties to the empire anymore. Nalyd wouldn't be the final empire spy, since if he was and this was true, he'd realize he wasn't an empire spy anymore and call sy out. Thus, Sy chooses to defend Nalyd to throw off suspicion on his end and gain an "ally" in the discussion.

 

I'm tempted to get out the paper and take notes, since I might already be forgetting tidbits. The whole role switching possibility really messes with everything, especially.

 

I'm inclined to believe that Excalibur started off as an avernite, and that Nalyd is telling the truth about himself, at least.

 

I am a Disciple of Sixus. There is one other, but I'll let them reveal for themself.

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What would be awesome is that if everyone but one person was privately told that they were the spy.

You're the only normal one.

It's too late for you now.

Well, the last time we did Mafia here (*checks* half a dozen years ago...), I told Slarty that he should do a round with just innocents, kill a person at random each round, and enjoy the fireworks. He seemed receptive to the idea, so something like that is entirely possible...
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Hmm. The weakest link in Excalibur's chain is "I switched with Sylae and am now a refugee." Sylae herself claims Apprentice Mage, meaning we need a mystery Empire Cultist to switch Sy's role for Excalibur's claim to work. The more likely scenario is:

 

EXCALIBUR really was the Geas Toucher but switched with an Imperial or Skribbane Addict, and made up the lie about Sy/Refugee as an alibi, knowing that if it turned out not to match Sy's role claim he could always blame the EC.

TRIUMPH and SYLAE both seem to have correctly guessed one person's role, suggesting they're the AM and Empire Infiltrator. However, we don't know which is which, because Sylae is smart enough not to reveal that she's an Imperial just because Excalibur says he switched with her.

THE EMPIRE CULTIST probably isn't in the game, because the only evidence for its existence (Excalibur's claims) has been discounted, so. . .

SARACHIM is still a Refugee. Sorry, haters!

 

If I were to make a suspicion index, from most suspicious to least, it'd go:

Excalibur

Triumph

Sylae

BainIhrno

Nalyd

Everybody else

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As could only have been the case if I was telling the truth earlier, I am a Disciple of Sixus - I'm not sure how Excalibur deduced that I was lying about my identity. That means that the two Disciples of Sixus were certainly Avernites at the start of the trip.

 

If Sylae and Triumph both claim to have scrying powers, of course one of them cannot be an Avernite.

 

If Nalyd is telling the truth, and if Sylae actually did identify Nalyd as a refugee, she cannot be the Empire Infiltrator since that role cannot distinguish between the refugees, highly alert citizen and skribbane addict. This is not contradictory with Excalibur's claims. Of course it might be that the information received was simply "no information" and Sylae could then use the fact that Nalyd had already revealed his role. If Sylae is the Infiltrator Excalibur must of course be lying.

 

I'd be interested to know Goldengirl's role.

 

EDIT: I'm not quite sure when the evidence for the empire cultist was discounted Sarachim? Maybe I missed something.

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EDIT: I'm not quite sure when the evidence for the empire cultist was discounted Sarachim? Maybe I missed something.

The only "evidence" for the EC was that Excalibur needed one to exist (and to target the right person) in order for his previous claims to be plausible. The simpler explanation is that Excalibur was just lying. Thus, either there's no EC in the game at all or we have no information about them, which amounts to the same thing.
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The basis for believing EC existed is that Sylae claims to have been the Apprentice Mage, yet Excalibur claims to have used the Geas Toucher power to gain Refugee status from Sylae. The only way that would have been possible if the EC existed and both the EC and Excalibur *coincidentally* targeted the same person (i.e. Sylae). The order of powers in the rules means Sylae would have been transmogrified (becoming Refugee), then Excalibur would have acquired Sylae's new role (Refugee). The problem with this is that I know Sylae is lying about having been the Apprentice Mage, because I am the Apprentice Mage. That leaves us with no meaningful evidence to believe the EC role exists (it might, of course, but we have no evidence of it).

 

At this point, the only person I can be 100% certain is totally lying is Sylae, so guess who's at the top of my suspect list at the moment?

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So, it's been 24 hours, and we have a lot to go on. If loyal Avernite votes are split, then the Imperial voting bloc might be enough to carry the vote all by itself, so it's absolutely vital we co-ordinate. There has to be a consensus vote or we have no chance.

 

Trouble is, everyone who's been talking has given us reasons to doubt them. Triumph and Sylae could both be an Empire Infiltrator, and I think either one is about equally likely. Excaibur's story about his role is technically plausible but highly improbable, making him most suspicious, but is he so suspicious that he could actually be the Addict? I'm not sure. And we have way more than 2 Refugees, making everyone who claimed that role suspicious as well.

 

We also shouldn't be too quick to excuse Iffy and Tridash. They vouch for each other as Disciples, but that could easily be an Imperial ploy.

 

Ultimately, I provisionally vote for TRIUMPH. He protests too much, like someone who's not used to lying and clearly uncomfortable with it. That's just a gut instinct, but with so many possible Imperials out there gut instincts are necessary.

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Rone mumbles in his sleep. "You're more than halfway through," he says. "and most of you haven't had to face the hotseat at all. You don't have the nerve to interrogate prisoners, and then you make hypotheses with insufficient information. Who are you people, hippies from Formello? When we started this kingdom, you had to learn to break a captured Slith before we'd even teach you how to cast Spark. Ah, Spark... a real man's spell. They don't make 'em like they used to, no sir. If only I had my equipment here, and was forty years younger, I'd show you all..."

 

He's much more eloquent in his sleep, but he's still a rambler.

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Lying about starting as a Disciple of Sixus would be extremely risky as it'd require that there were *no* disciples of Sixus at the start, and probably no priest too. Hopefully that means that Iffy and I can be ruled out of starting as a non-Avernites and seen as trustworthy. We need to know Goldengirl's role, and then any Avernites who have not been entirely forthcoming with their roles should reveal any deception either in public or to another guaranteed Avernite - that would probably mean telling me or telling Iffy.

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