Jeff,
You've nailed it on the head. It's virtually impossible to make money at this anymore for all the reasons you described. It used to be that if you made a good game in this industry it would make money. Now there's absolutely zero correlation between the quality of a game and how successful it is. It's throwing a dart at a dartboard and hoping it sticks.
At this point for me it's a hobby. We've got enough apps that I can still make a living off of the trickle of cash each one brings in, but it's hard to justify the time and money to develop new apps when there's a 85% chance they'll go nowhere.
-Brian Greenstone
CEO, Pangea Software, Inc.