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sylae

In which I abuse my access to the database for the purposes of statistics

89 posts in this topic

What follows is a graph of the forum-wide daily postcount (posts per day) in the form of a 20-period moving average. Note that this graph does not take into account any posts that have been purged or otherwise removed.

 

4ea093c6.png

In addition, here is a version with some of the game release dates noted, so as to correspond with the spikes (these release dates could be off, they're just based off a quick forum search). Also. here's a graph of the raw data, with the 20-perion MA in black

 

Also: The 20 most postalicious days in SW history:

 

8/4/2011    432
8/8/2011    404
7/30/2011    345
1/4/2006    323
4/18/2009    321
11/30/2008    300
8/25/2011    298
4/14/2012    295
12/24/2005    292
7/15/2009    290
12/13/2005    287
4/15/2012    285
12/20/2005    277
12/23/2005    258
4/17/2012    257
4/12/2012    256
1/5/2006    253
3/20/2007    253
4/19/2012    253
12/12/2005    252

 

 

Edited by Sylae
Further graphs of other stuff may or may not be revealed at a distant point in the future

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The period around 2006-7 was when Aran posted monthly numbers for posts by members with a top 10 list. After a particular slow summer there were the spam games.

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What happened in early 2004?

I believe there was a forum purge in early 2004. A lot of posts before that point were deleted.

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This is lovely, Sylae! I am somewhat surprised I didn't see something of the sort from Slarty, though perhaps I just missed it.

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This sort of data mining is far easier with IPB than it was with UBB.

 

—Alorael, who's sure it was possible with UBB. It just wasn't remotely convenient. In any case Aran would have been the statistician. Slarty is much more of a narrative historian.

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In the long run, yes. But I haven't seen Aran post anything of the sort for a good while, while Slarty got quite in depth with his last big poll. In any case, I think it's safe to say that Sylae will be carrying that mantle for a while. That's fine; she wears it well.

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What was happening on 8/4 and 8/11 of 2011? Were those Slarty's nifty PDN-based puzzle/trivia games?

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What was happening on 8/4 and 8/11 of 2011? Were those Slarty's nifty PDN-based puzzle/trivia games?

That was when I ported BoA scenario reviews from the CSR creating hundreds of new posts in the process.

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This sort of data mining is far easier with IPB than it was with UBB.

 

—Alorael, who's sure it was possible with UBB. It just wasn't remotely convenient. In any case Aran would have been the statistician. Slarty is much more of a narrative historian.

It's about the same (I'm just using the SQL directly, it's a lot easier than the builtin stats tools), and might even be a touch easier in UBB, since the database schema appears to be a lot simpler than with IPB.

 

The top ten posters if board purges were taken into account:

 

Randomizer....11940
Lilith........10950
Slarty.........9018
Alorael........8941
Dikiyoba.......6147
Kelandon.......4523
SoT............4041
Dantius........3685
Stareye........3589
Ephesos........3469

 

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.

The period around 2006-7 was when Aran posted monthly numbers for posts by members with a top 10 list. After a particular slow summer there were the spam games.

Alas, the great Spamfest strikes only the fourth-highest peak. [/nostalgia]

 

I can't remember offhand, when did Spiderweb start on Steam? Late 2010/early 2011? Would explain the rise in the base posting quantity shortly thereafter.

 


The Silent Assassin wants you all to know that the Great War against All Things Puce is proceeding on schedule. Be very sure which side you're on.

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I can't remember offhand, when did Spiderweb start on Steam? Late 2010/early 2011? Would explain the rise in the base posting quantity shortly thereafter.

Avadon got on Steam 7/2011, I believe.

 

Number of posts made by the top spammer each day

 

Percentage of the day's posts that were by top spammer - Early data is not shown, as the only remaining posts from that period are by SW and thus a wall of purple is all that's there.

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... How does one exceed 50%? I mean, who would you be talking to?

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Alas, the great Spamfest strikes only the fourth-highest peak. [/nostalgia]

General was pruned in 2009, so many of the posts from that era are not part of the equation.

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... How does one exceed 50%? I mean, who would you be talking to?

When Iffy first joined practically every other post was by him.

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Yes, but even every other post would be only 50%. The graph is sometimes showing 70% of the posts were by one person, so something is very wrong with the graph. (Alternately, Sylae was somehow able to recover all of Alorael's deleted posts in the Mod Board. :p )

 

Dikiyoba.

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It's easy. There are very few posts on a particular day, and one person posts in numerous threads. This doesn't have to be a single back-and-forth conversation.

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There were days when Drakefyre managed to have the last post in every visible thread.

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My successor has shown to be a worthy pony indeed. :p

 

Might be interesting to see the stats split by General / Game fora, to identify the impact of game releases more clearly.

 

Side note: I'm unable to back up the post table due to memory issues. I really hope that doesn't mean I'll have to rewrite piperbot again...

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Side note: I'm unable to back up the post table due to memory issues. I really hope that doesn't mean I'll have to rewrite piperbot again...

I haven't tried selecting the post body yet, but tossing in a limit 0,50000 and so on helps to make getting data easier. Of course, then you have to deal with the HTML table...thing...and it may or may not screw with the output, I haven't checked very much into it :p

Edited by Sylae
Also I saw a mention or two of an XML interface to the forums. A rewrite might be rather easy...

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The easiest way to have a huge percentage of posts is to do something like reply to or start a topic, have someone else respond, respond to the response, and then have no further conversation. That right there gets you to 67%. A few posts with no responses (100% of the activity in the thread) can hit 70%. Not that that's happened; I think missing posts are a much more plausible explanation. Maybe those 70% are all that remains unpurged.

 

—Alorael, who still fondly remembers working with Arctic Wolf to provide any possible response to all of Morgan's posts so he could be the second to hit 1000 on the UBB long, long ago. And there weren't even titles for it back then.

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Iffy made over 50 posts on his first day to get a new title. :(

I'm fairly certain the number was 30.

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a7bbddae.png

all posts by hour.

 

BONUS: SW versus CalRef

Edited by Sylae
I also considered doing it versus the calref chat messages, but that's only a month or two of data since it purges itself
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I'm surprised at the CalRef graph having three modes. I've seen many 24h activity curves, and it seems that with sufficient data they all settle down into a single global maximum. Though a small community with a few very active members could probably get a curve that still reflected those members' individual curves.

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all posts by hour.

Dumb question: what time zone?

 


The Silent Assassin's Explosive Kittens of Doom have been put into a temporary production delay due to the anticipation of Hurricane Sandy. Most of you who ordered any should have already received notification and a complementary pie, the rest of you now know, and will be further warned, if you receive a package labeled "Cherry Pie", please send it back immediately without opening it. That package was mislabeled and actually contains some of the explosive components.

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Yeah, plus the memberbase has changed a bit since 2008, as well as the times when people are active. I mean one of those spikes has got to be due to Vergil, and he hasn't forumed in a while. Really, the forums themselves don't get much love since everyone is in the chat.

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Dumb question: what time zone?

It says MDT at the bottom. This stands for Mountain Daylight time or GMT-6 (EDT-2).

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Which is changing on November 4th at 2:00 AM! Don't forget to update the one or two devices you have remaining that don't automatically do this!

Edited by Sylae
my high school's bell system was from the 70s and couldn't handle daylight savings. they had to manually change all the bell times. it meant every spring and fall there was a week-long period where the bell system was so ridiculously off.

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Yeah, plus the memberbase has changed a bit since 2008, as well as the times when people are active. I mean one of those spikes has got to be due to Vergil, and he hasn't forumed in a while. Really, the forums themselves don't get much love since everyone is in the chat.

 

Ever since SV stagnated and it was CalRef's turn to become the foremost (and now only) satellite, I've felt a little twinge that I didn't get in on it earlier. Now there's all this history and I'd feel like an outsider. :p

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It says MDT at the bottom.

I have no idea how I missed that. Shame on me. :(


The Silent Assassin wants me to remind you that the last hurricane to come through our area got us trapped in the bunker for two weeks after a false alarm and a security mishap. In the event that you need to contact him and he doesn't know, please be patient: he's packing a supply of plastic spoons this time, just to be safe.

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Ever since SV stagnated and it was CalRef's turn to become the foremost (and now only) satellite, I've felt a little twinge that I didn't get in on it earlier. Now there's all this history and I'd feel like an outsider. :p

 

Welcome to how Refugi felt about SW. :p

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Ever since SV stagnated and it was CalRef's turn to become the foremost (and now only) satellite, I've felt a little twinge that I didn't get in on it earlier. Now there's all this history and I'd feel like an outsider. :p

I would like to respectfully disagree on the feel like an outsider part. Plenty of folk have no idea of the awesomeness of PS, or the delicate political subtones of *whip* *meow*, or had to put up with Vergil being Vergil, and yet they are just as much Refugi as the old guard.

 

But don't let me preach to you about it, stop by the chat and see for yourself :p

Edited by Sylae
if it makes your inner nerd feel better, i've been working on a XMPP <--> CalRef chat bridge. sockets are fun!

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Ever since SV stagnated and it was CalRef's turn to become the foremost (and now only) satellite, I've felt a little twinge that I didn't get in on it earlier. Now there's all this history and I'd feel like an outsider. :p

 

It looks to me like you registered an account way back in 2009, though not a terrifically active one. In any case, at least three prominent Spiderwebbers have appeared in CalRef chat in the last twenty four hours. The place is run by a mod. The days of being exclusive or counterculture are, at least for Ligrev's Lounge, fading away. You should stop by. Just don't expect family friendly.

 

I have no idea how I missed that. Shame on me. :(

 

Oh, come on, you're giving Tyran credit for pointing out the obvious? I demand my sniping kudos!

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Oh, come on, you're giving Tyran credit for pointing out the obvious? I demand my sniping kudos!

Sniping kudos have considerably depreciated in value and have been supplanted by the now superior moderator kudos.

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I know I made an account, and I probably posted once or twice. Never really stuck around, though.

 

And now that I tried to go there, it seems the forum doesn't load. It's still http://calref.net/ , right? Odd...

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I know I made an account, and I probably posted once or twice. Never really stuck around, though.

 

And now that I tried to go there, it seems the forum doesn't load. It's still http://calref.net/ , right? Odd...

It is. The site just went down a little bit ago. Sylae is working on it.

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I think it's down at the moment. At least, I timed out of chat a moment ago and haven't been able to get back on. Your approach must have triggered the built in defenses. (Incidentally, for those disinclined to make an account, you can go directly to calref.net/chat and just put in a username, no password, to log in as a guest.)

 

Edit: Sniped. Tyran always gets the better of me in the end.

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It is. The site just went down a little bit ago. Sylae is working on it.

back up. I love it when that happens. it's so much fun

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Anything to do with this?

 

if it makes your inner nerd feel better, i've been working on a XMPP <--> CalRef chat bridge. sockets are fun!

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Actually that's to fix the issue. The server randomly crashes because there's something in the AJAX chat client that causes it to suicide-DoS the server randomly. It's kind of annoying.

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relationship of postcount to likes. Only includes members with over ten posts since the switch.

 

raw data:

 

 

author_name likes n_posts lpp

Miramor 10 18 0.555555556

Dikiyoba 34 148 0.22972973

Student of Trinity 49 220 0.222727273

Arancaytar 41 192 0.213541667

Sylae 66 311 0.21221865

Saunders 8 38 0.210526316

Actaeon 44 212 0.20754717

Lilith 47 258 0.182170543

The Rev 21 122 0.172131148

Triumph 35 208 0.168269231

Excalibur 25 149 0.167785235

nikki. 32 192 0.166666667

Juan Carlo 2 13 0.153846154

Alorael 25 170 0.147058824

Rowen 8 55 0.145454545

Tyranicus 40 275 0.145454545

Goldenking 7 50 0.14

Lenar Labs 6 46 0.130434783

A less presumptuous name. 4 31 0.129032258

Jerakeen 13 112 0.116071429

Iffy 3 26 0.115384615

Catoblepas 2 18 0.111111111

Adventurer Ackrovan 2 19 0.105263158

Nalyd 8 76 0.105263158

Wolf Among The Sheep 2 21 0.095238095

Little Fyora 2 21 0.095238095

Trenton. 19 202 0.094059406

Slartibus 3 33 0.090909091

Lepus non Gratus 10 119 0.084033613

tridash 1 12 0.083333333

BMA 4 51 0.078431373

BJearles 1 13 0.076923077

Jewels in Black 9 117 0.076923077

Shaper Shaper 1 13 0.076923077

The Almighty Doer of Stuff 8 109 0.073394495

RaustBlackDragon 6 82 0.073170732

Mosquito---Slayer 28 391 0.071611253

Davies 1 15 0.066666667

Randomizer 15 251 0.059760956

Death Knight 4 79 0.050632911

MSG Babter Serial#:303030 5 131 0.038167939

Kelandon 2 54 0.037037037

Upon Mars. 1 35 0.028571429

*i 1 43 0.023255814

Cairo Jim 1 48 0.020833333

Somerset Lopez Vidili 1 50 0.02

Earth Empires 1 144 0.006944444

 

 

Edited by صيلي
also, only uses forum likes. likes from blogs are ignored as this would make the SQL query even longer and more horrid
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Now THAT's a statistic worth looking at. And not just because I ranked decently.

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